Europe: EU suspends seven Russian banks from SWIFT system March 2 /update 14

Event

The EU has blocked seven Russian banks from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) global financial messaging system as of March 2 in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The EU has also suspended the broadcasting of two notable Russia-owned media organizations within the bloc.

Several governments have imposed a plethora of international sanctions on Russia in response to the Kremlin's decision to invade Ukraine Feb. 24. The sanctions target the country's banking and finance sector, international travel capabilities, and specific Russian companies and citizens. Sanctions and countersanctions could limit the ability of some foreign nationals to operate in Russia and Belarus, and of Russian and Belarusian nationals to operate in Europe. Still, foreign nationals seeking to leave Russia or Belarus, or Russians and Belarusians seeking to leave European nations, are unlikely to face administrative obstacles although flight availability will be significantly reduced. Foreign diplomatic missions in Russia or Belarus could be forced to limit consular services if sanctions prompt expulsions or withdrawals of embassy and consulate staff. While there may be an elevated threat of arbitrary politically motivated detentions until tensions ease, the likelihood of such actions remains low.

Airspace Closures
The EU has prohibited all Russian-owned, -registered, or -controlled aircraft, including private and charter flights, from landing in, taking off from, or transiting any EU nation. Authorities in Switzerland, the UK, Canada, and the US have imposed similar bans. Russia's Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsiya) announced reciprocal restrictions on Russian airspace for airlines operated by those countries Feb. 28. Flights from these countries can only be conducted with a special permit issued by Rosaviatsiya or the Russian Foreign Ministry. This measure does not yet apply to US carriers as US authorities imposed the ban March 2; it is likely Russia will extend the ban to US carriers in the coming days. Airspace closures will lead to significant disruptions to air travel, including scheduling changes and lengthier flight times, as carriers are forced to change routes.

Aside from national airspace closures, a number of Western airlines have either partially or fully suspended services using Russian airspace. Air France (AF) has suspended services to and overflights via Russia until further notice. As a consequence, flights to and from China, South Korea, and Japan will be temporarily suspended. Lufthansa (LH), Wizz Air (W6), and KLM (KL) have also halted flights to Russia temporarily; British Airways (BA) has stopped its service to Moscow. US carrier Delta (DL) has suspended its code-share arrangement with Russian flag carrier Aeroflot (SU). Swiss Airlines (LX) has suspended services to Russia through at least the end of March.

Aeroflot has canceled all of its flights serving Europe through at least late May; the measure also applies to flights operated by the company's subsidiary Rossiya Airlines (FV). S7 Airlines (S7) has taken similar steps, suspending all of its service to Europe through at least March 26. Additional Russian carriers will almost certainly be forced to cancel their European services over the coming days.

European Air Travel Restrictions
Belarus has partially closed its airspace, including the southern Brest Region and areas south of Asipovichy and Krichev in the Mogilev Region. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has also issued a warning for Ukraine and surrounding regions, including an advisory to avoid using the airspace within 100 nautical miles (185 km/115 miles) of the Belarus-Ukraine and Russia-Ukraine borders. Moldova, on the other hand, has fully closed its airspace. To view the full EASA warning, click here.

Russian Domestic Air Restrictions
Russia has suspended commercial flight operations at several southern airports until at least March 8. Impacted airports include Rostov-on-Don Airport (RVI), Krasnodar International Airport (KRR), Anapa Airport (AAQ), Gelendzhik Airport (GDZ), Elista Airport (ESL), Stavropol Shpakovskoye Airport (STW), Belgorod International Airport (EGO), Bryansk International Airport (BZK), Oryol Yuzhny Airport (OEL), Kursk Vostochny Airport (URS), Voronezh International Airport (VOZ), and Simferopol International Airport (SIP).

Embassy Warnings
Several governments have issued travel advisories recommending against travel to Russia and recommending citizens depart Russia due to the conflict and significantly reduced available transport options out of the country.

The US Embassy in Moscow advised its citizens to consider leaving Russia immediately using currently available commercial means Feb. 27. The French Ministry for Foreign Affairs recommended that French visitors to Russia and all French citizens in Belarus leave without delay Feb. 27. The Australian Department of Foreign Affairs advised all citizens to leave Russia immediately Feb. 28. Several countries have also advised against all nonessential travel or all travel to Russia, including the UK, Ireland, Germany, and several others. Further travel advisories are likely from additional governments in the coming days.

Additionally, US authorities announced the suspension of operations at the embassy in Minsk and authorized the voluntary departure of nonemergency employees and family members working at the embassy in Moscow.

Heightened Security and General Disruptions
Several countries sharing borders with Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia have implemented heightened security measures. Multiple NATO members in the region have invoked Article 4 of the NATO treaty. They could increase the readiness of their militaries as a result, though this is not an indication that they expect to become engaged in the conflict.

Moldova, Lithuania, and Slovakia have enacted states of emergency. Slovakia has suspended international rail services with Ukraine. Moldova, Slovakia, Hungary, and Poland are all keeping their respective borders with Ukraine open and are preparing to receive refugees; these countries are also likely to maintain heightened troop deployments near their borders with Ukraine over at least the short term. Enhanced security measures and a sharp increase in individuals attempting to leave Ukraine will likely result in border crossing delays.

Ukraine has closed its border checkpoints with Belarus, Russia, and the Transnistria region of Moldova to foreign nationals; Ukrainian citizens are, however, permitted to return.

A Ukrainian cyber guerrilla warfare group has claimed it will launch cyberattacks against Russian infrastructure involved in the moving of troops and weapons to Ukraine. This could include rail infrastructure, telecommunications networks, and power grids; if successful, this could result in significant disruptions to business and services in Russia and Belarus.

Sanctions
Authorities in the US, UK, and the EU have agreed to impose economic sanctions on Russia. These include excluding Russian organizations from SWIFT, forbidding citizens and companies from conducting transactions with several Russian organizations, including the Russian central bank, and freezing foreign-held assets of Russian companies and organizations. Russian authorities have imposed countermeasures intended to limit the impact of sanctions, including prohibiting Russian citizens from exiting the country with more than USD 10,000 in foreign currency and capital controls preventing foreign companies from selling Russian assets. The UK has banned Russian-connected ships from its seaports; other governments have not implemented similar bans as of March 2.

Some international payment networks and mobile payments providers have suspended certain Russian financial institutions' access to their networks or have otherwise limited services in Russia. Multiple major shipping companies have suspended deliveries of nonessential goods to and from Russia, which will likely result in significant shipping disruptions and, over time, reduce the availability of certain goods.

Generalized public fear over the potential impact of strong economic sanctions could prompt shortages of cash at ATMs as citizens attempt to withdraw large quantities of funds, as well as shortages of essential goods due to panic buying.

Anti-Western Sentiment
In the coming days, heightened anti-Western sentiment is possible in Russia and Belarus in reaction to the international response to the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine. While there is currently no increased direct security threat to Western or other foreign nationals in Russia or Belarus, isolated incidents of low-level harassment are possible. A potential rise in anti-Western sentiment could also result in increased scrutiny, harassment, or coercion of foreign nationals by border guards, police, and other officials. The frequency of such incidents could increase depending on the severity of any Western economic sanctions.

Advice

Confirm flight status with carriers; do not check out of accommodations until onward travel is confirmed. Avoid nonessential travel to affected border regions; defer travel to Ukraine. Exercise heightened vigilance at public gathering places in major urban areas. Heed authorities' instructions; remain calm and cooperative if questioned by law enforcement officers. Carry proper identification, including a passport with a current Russian or Belarusian visa if one is required. Prepare for disruption to card payments in Russia. Ensure alternative payment methods are available. Avoid all demonstrations as a routine security precaution and leave the area at the first sign of a confrontation. Refrain from discussing the ongoing conflict in Ukraine or other politically sensitive topics.

Resources

European Union Aviation Safety Agency
Russian Federal Air Transport Agency (Russian)