Mongolia: Adverse weather forecast across much of the country through at least March 24 /update 1

Event

Adverse weather, including snowstorms, strong winds, thunderstorms, heavy rainfall, and duststorms, is forecast across much of Mongolia through at least March 24. On the night of March 23-24, snowstorms are expected in Arkhangai, southern Bulgan, northern Ovorkhangai, and eastern Zavkhan provinces, with duststorms expected in Bayankhongor, Gobi-Altai, Omnogovi, and southern Ovorkhangai provinces. During March 24, winds of up to 86 kph (53 mph) are possible in Bayankhongor, Dornogovi, Dundgovi, Gobi-Altai, Govisumber, eastern Omnogovi, and southern Sukhbaatar provinces.

The Mongolian National Agency for Meteorology and Environment Monitoring (NAMEM) has issued the following warnings March 23-24:

• Orange snowstorm warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale): Arkhangai, Bulgan, Ovorkhangai, and Zavkhan provinces.

• Orange duststorm warnings: Bayankhongor, Gobi-Altai, Omnogovi, and Ovorkhangai provinces.

• Orange strong wind warnings: Bayankhongor, Dornogovi, Dundgovi, Gobi-Altai, Govisumber, Omnogovi, and Sukhbaatar provinces.

• Yellow snowstorm warnings: Darkhan-Uul, Dornod, Khenti, Khovsgol, Orkhon, Selenge, Tov, and Ulaanbaatar provinces.

• Yellow thunderstorms and heavy rainfall warnings: Dornod Province.

• Yellow duststorm warnings: Dornogovi, Dundgovi, and Govisumber.

• Yellow strong wind warnings: Khenti, Khovd, and Ovorkhangai, provinces.

Hazardous Conditions
Rounds of heavy precipitation (including rain and snow), strong winds, and isolated thunderstorm activity are possible across the affected area. Where precipitation falls as rain, flash and areal flooding is possible. Such flooding is possible in low-lying communities near watercourses and other large bodies of water and in urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Significant rainfall may be preceded by moderate winds and dust storms, though some areas - particularly desert areas - may experience high levels of dust without rain.

Precipitation could fall as snow in some areas over the coming days. Wind gusts could cause blowing and drifting snow; decreased visibility is likely in mountainous areas. Rain-induced landslides cannot be discounted in areas of elevated terrain; there is also the possibility of avalanches in mountainous areas where the snowpack has become unstable due to heavy snowfall. Power outages could occur throughout the affected area.

Transport
Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around the affected area. Flooding in urban areas could also result in significant traffic congestion. Snow or dust blown by strong winds may reduce visibility and will likely make driving hazardous in some areas; authorities could implement temporary road closures or detours in such locations. Mountain passes and tunnels could be closed as a precautionary measure during periods of intense snowfall. The disruptive weather will likely cause some delays and cancellations at airports in the region.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding or avalanches, could persist well after conditions have improved - it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or officials clear debris. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather-related updates and advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business arrangements before traveling in the affected area. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where severe weather is forecast; plan for possible supply chain disruptions throughout the affected areas. Stay away from elevated streams, creeks, and other watercourses that are prone to flash flooding. Do not attempt to navigate flooded roadways. Exercise caution in elevated terrain due to the threat of landslides, as well as mountainous regions where avalanches pose a threat. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Mongolian National Agency for Meteorology and Environment Monitoring (NAMEM) (Mongolian)