Mongolia: Adverse weather forecast across western and central regions through at least March 23

Event

Adverse weather, including snowstorms, strong winds, heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and duststorms, is forecast across much of western and central Mongolia through at least March 23. The most severe weather is forecast to occur in southern Bayan-Olgii Province, which will be hit by a snowstorm. Winds of up to 86 kph (53 mph) are likely in Gobi-Altai, northern Bayan-Olgii, southern Uvs, and northern Khovd provinces.

As of March 22, the Mongolian National Agency for Meteorology and Environment Monitoring (NAMEM) has issued the following warnings across the affected area:

• Orange snowstorm warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale): southern Bayan-Olgii Province.

• Orange strong wind warnings: Gobi-Altai, northern Bayan-Olgii, southern Uvs, and northern Khovd provinces.

• Yellow thunderstorm and heavy rainfall warnings: western Khovsgol Province.

• Yellow duststorm warnings: Dundgovi, Omnogovi, and Zavkhan provinces.

• Yellow strong wind warnings: Arkhangai, Bayankhongor, Ovorkhangai, and Zavkhan provinces.

Hazardous Conditions
Rounds of heavy precipitation (including rain and snow), strong winds, and isolated thunderstorm activity are possible across the affected area. Where precipitation falls as rain, flash and areal flooding is possible. Such flooding is possible in low-lying communities near watercourses and other large bodies of water, as well as in urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Significant rainfall may be preceded by moderate winds and dust storms, though some areas - particularly desert areas - may experience high levels of dust without rain.

Precipitation could fall as snow in some areas over the coming days. Wind gusts could cause blowing and drifting snow; decreased visibility is likely in mountainous areas. Rain-induced landslides cannot be discounted in areas of elevated terrain; there is also the possibility of avalanches in mountainous areas where the snowpack has become unstable due to heavy snowfall. Power outages could occur throughout the affected area.

Transport
Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around the affected area. Flooding in urban areas could also result in significant traffic congestion. Snow or dust blown by strong winds may reduce visibility and will likely make driving hazardous in some areas; authorities could implement temporary road closures or detours in such locations. Mountain passes and tunnels could be closed as a precautionary measure during periods of intense snowfall. The disruptive weather will likely cause some delays and cancellations at airports in the region.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding or avalanches, could persist well after conditions have improved - it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or officials clear debris. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather-related updates and advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business arrangements before traveling in the affected area. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where severe weather is forecast; plan for possible supply chain disruptions throughout the affected areas. Stay away from elevated streams, creeks, and other watercourses that are prone to flash flooding. Do not attempt to navigate flooded roadways. Exercise caution in elevated terrain due to the threat of landslides, as well as mountainous regions where avalanches pose a threat. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Mongolian National Agency for Meteorology and Environment Monitoring (NAMEM) (Mongolian)