Mozambique: Adverse weather forecast across central and northern regions through at least March 19 /update 1

Event

Heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and strong winds are forecast across much of central and northern Mozambique through at least March 19. Mozambique's National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) has issued orange warnings for moderate to heavy rainfall and thunderstorms across Manica, Sofala, Tete, and Zambezia provinces. More than 5 cm (2 inches) of rainfall in 24 hours is expected in the affected provinces, with localized amounts of over 10 cm (4 inches). The downpours will be accompanied by thunderstorms and strong winds. The warning also states that rains and thunderstorms are expected in Cado Delgado, Nampula, and Niassa provinces, although these are not under an official weather warning. The Regional Administration of Waters has also warned that heavy rainfall could cause rivers across central Mozambique to overflow, causing flooding that could render roads impassable and damage infrastructure and agricultural land.

The adverse weather is associated with the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Gombe, which has caused flooding and disruptions across the region after making landfall in Nampula Province as an intense tropical cyclone early March 11 and tracked westward across northern Mozambique and southern Malawi before dissipating March 13. Further heavy rainfall is likely to exacerbate the situation where the ground is already saturated and hamper recovery efforts.

As of March 17, authorities have reported 51 fatalities associated with Gombe, 48 of which occurred in Nampula Province and three in Zambezia Province. Four other people in Nampula are still missing and at least 80 people have been injured. The storm has affected over 400,000 people across Nampula and Zambezia provinces, leaving around 20,000 displaced. More than 45,000 homes have been totally destroyed, over 30,000 partially damaged, and around 2,600 have been flooded. Power outages have been reported in the affected area and many roads have been damaged, leaving some communities cut off. The additional rainfall forecast in the coming days is likely to hamper recovery efforts and further flooding is likely over ground already saturated by previous downpours.

Hazardous Conditions
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where the soil has become saturated by heavy rainfall.

Authorities could issue mandatory evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant flooding or landslides impact utility networks.

Transport
Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters.

Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancellations at regional airports. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations or close beach fronts if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where flooding has been forecast. Do not drive on flooded roads. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Mozambique National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) (Portuguese)