Lebanon: Further protests, clashes likely in Tripoli until at least early May after vessel capsizes off coast late April 23 /update 1

Event

Additional demonstrations and clashes are likely in Tripoli until at least early May after a vessel carrying at least 60 migrants capsized off the city's coast late April 23. The incident left at least seven people dead; an unspecified number of others, potentially numbering in the dozens, are still missing. The event prompted Prime Minister Najib Mikati to declare April 25 a national day of mourning.

Protests erupted in Tripoli April 24 in response to the incident, and Lebanese military reinforcements were deployed to the city to maintain security. Some demonstrators reportedly burned tires, blocked roads, and engaged in clashes with security forces. Additionally, large crowds accompanied funeral processions in the city April 25, and demonstrators reportedly blocked a road in the Al-Baqar area April 26.

Authorities are likely to deploy security forces to the vicinity of any related demonstration. Heightened security will almost certainly prompt transport and business disruptions in protest-affected areas. Clashes between protesters and security forces are especially likely if demonstrators are disruptive or attempt to vandalize property.

Context

Hundreds of Lebanese citizens and Syrian refugees have attempted to travel from Lebanon to Europe via small vessels amid the country's deepening economic crisis, which the World Bank has regarded as likely to rank among the world's worst since the mid-19th century. The country's worsening economic conditions have been compounded by the government's inability to form an effective governing coalition that can bring about needed reforms. Overall, Lebanon's descent into increasing poverty and potential economic collapse will likely continue over the medium term, as Mikati has been unable to rein in the sectarian rent-seeking behavior that has defined Lebanese politics for decades and which inhibits accountability and transparency in government.

With the country facing a likely continued descent into dysfunction, the Lebanese people will almost certainly continue to resort to acts of civil unrest to air their grievances. Moreover, the protests that have materialized in Tripoli in response to the capsizing of the migrant vessel could trigger broader demonstrations across Lebanon.

Advice

Avoid all protests and rallies. If clashes break out nearby, seek shelter in a secure, nongovernmental building. Consider taking alternative routes to circumvent protest-related transport disruptions. Adhere to all instructions issued by local authorities.