Lebanon: Demonstrations, increased security likely during run-up to May 15 parliamentary elections

Event

Political demonstrations, localized transport and business disruptions, and heightened security measures are likely throughout Lebanon ahead of, during, and immediately after Lebanon's May 15 parliamentary elections. Anti-government sentiment remains high amid the nation's profound economic crisis, with numerous protests held across the country in recent months to denounce deteriorating socioeconomic conditions and perceived government mismanagement. Activists will likely stage protests with increasing frequency as the polls approach, organizing rallies in Beirut and other urban areas. Political demonstrations in support of various parties are also likely in the lead-up to vote.

Additionally, political protests are likely in the days following the election in the event of any allegations of voter fraud or other perceived electoral irregularities. Localized transport and business disruptions could occur near any demonstrations that may materialize.

Authorities will almost certainly deploy increased security to any such demonstrations, as well as to polling stations to safeguard electoral proceedings. Clashes between supporters of rival political camps or between demonstrators and security forces are possible; isolated attacks against political infrastructure, government interests, or security forces cannot be ruled out.

Context

The parliamentary elections, held every four years, are the first to take place since the explosion at the Port of Beirut killed more than 200 people in August 2020 and the country's economic crisis began in 2019. Also, notably, expatriates will be allowed to vote for only the second time in Lebanon's electoral history; citizens residing in nine Arab countries and Iran began voting May 6, and citizens living abroad in dozens of other countries will be able to vote May 8.

Despite the turmoil that has defined Lebanese politics and society since the last elections in 2018, with the country's politicians taking little action to tackle the devastating economic crisis or cushion its impact on Lebanese citizens, traditional parties are still likely to outperform self-pronounced opposition groups. Such groups, forming in the wake of the October 2019 anti-government protests that ultimately prompted the resignation of then-Prime Minister Saad Hariri, have failed to coalesce behind a single front or ideological message; an average of three opposition lists are slated to compete in each of Lebanon's 15 electoral districts. Also aiding traditional parties' odds of performing well in the upcoming elections is the confessional power-sharing system that stifles cross-sectarian competition and inhibits political accountability.

Advice

Avoid polling stations and any political demonstrations for the duration of the campaigning and election season. If unrest breaks out in the area, immediately depart and seek shelter in a secure, nongovernmental building. Allow extra time to reach destinations in protest-affected areas; consider taking alternative routes to circumvent related disruptions. Strictly heed the instructions of authorities.