Caribbean Sea: Potential TC Two tracking westward in the Caribbean Sea June 30 /update 5

Event

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is tracking westward over the Caribbean Sea off the coast of northern Colombia as of June 30. The storm has made landfall June 28-30 over eastern Trinidad, Trinidad and Tobago; Isla Margarita, Nueva Esparta State, and Falcon State, Venezuela; and the Guajira Peninsula, La Guajira Department, Colombia. As of 11:00 EDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 1,065 km (660 miles) east of Bluefields, Nicaragua. The storm system has yet to be classified as a tropical storm due to a lack of a well-defined structure; however, it is expected to form into a tropical storm over the next 24-48 hours, upon which it will be renamed Tropical Storm Bonnie.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen as it tracks generally westward across the southwestern Caribbean Sea June 30-July 1 and will likely make landfall along the southern part of Nicaragua's east coast as a strong tropical storm late July 1. The system is forecast to weaken as it tracks generally westward across southern Nicaragua close to the border with Costa Rica overnight July 1-2, before exiting into the North Pacific Ocean early July 2. The storm will subsequently strengthen into a Category 1 Hurricane as it tracks generally west-northwest off the southern coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico July 2-5. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of June 30, the following watches and warnings are in place:

• Hurricane Watch: from the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border to Laguna de Perlas, Nicaragua.

• Tropical Storm Warning: San Andreas, Colombia; and from Limon, Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua.

• Tropical Storm Watch: Cabo Blanco, Costa Rica, northward to Puerto Sandino, Nicaragua.

Officials could update and possibly extend the coverage of the relevant weather alerts over the coming days.

Heavy rainfall is forecast across portions of northern Colombia June 30 and across Nicaragua and Costa Rica July 1. Forecast models indicate rainfall of 7.5-12.5 cm (3-5 inches) in northern Colombia and 10-20 cm (4-8 inches), with isolated higher totals around 30 cm (12 inches) over Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Storm surges could raise water levels by 0.3-0.9 meters (1-3 feet) along the coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the storm makes landfall.

Authorities in Curacao issued a curfew from 11:00 June 29-04:00 June 30 due to the passing of the storm. Schools will remain closed June 30; however, businesses are encouraged to remain open as the threat from the storm has largely passed. Authorities on the Colombian islands of San Andreas and Providencia have established shelters for the public ahead of the passing of the storm.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center
Colombia Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (IDEAM)
Costa Rica National Institute of Meteorology
El Salvador National Service of Territorial Studies
Hidromet (Panama)
National Weather Service
Nicaragua Institute of Territorial Studies
Venezuela National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (INAMEH)
Mexico National Meteorological Service (SMN)