Caribbean Sea: Potential TC Two tracking westward in the Caribbean Sea late June 29 /update 4

Event

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is tracking westward over the Caribbean Sea off the coast of Venezuela as of late June 29. The storm made landfall over eastern Trinidad, Trinidad and Tobago, as well as Isla Margarita and Nueva Esparta State, Venezuela, late June 28-early June 29 and Falcon State, Venezuela, late June 29. As of 23:00 EDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 105 km (65 miles) east-southeast of the northern tip of Guajira Peninsula, Colombia. The storm system has yet to be classified as a tropical storm due to a lack of a well-defined structure; however, it is expected to form into a tropical storm over the next 24-48 hours, upon which it will be renamed Tropical Storm Bonnie.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will make another landfall the Guajira Peninsula, La Guajira Department, in far northeastern Colombia early June 30. The storm is then forecast to strengthen further as it tracks westward across the southwestern Caribbean Sea June 30-July 1 and will likely make landfall over Nicaragua's southeastern coast as a strong tropical storm late July 1. The system is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression as it tracks generally westward across southern Nicaragua before exiting into the North Pacific Ocean early July 2. The storm will subsequently strengthen into a Category 1 Hurricane as it tracks generally west-northwest off the southern coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico July 2-4. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of late June 29, the following watches and warnings are in place:

• Hurricane Watch: from the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border to Laguna de Perlas, Nicaragua.

• Tropical Storm Warning: The coast of Venezuela from the Peninsula de Paraguana westward to the Colombia-Venezuela border, including the Gulf of Venezuela; the coast of Colombia from the Colombia-Venezuela border westward to Santa Marta.

• Tropical Storm Watch: Limon, Costa Rica, northward to the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border; north of Laguna de Perlas to Sandy Bay Sirpi in Nicaragua.

Officials could update and possibly extend the coverage of the relevant weather alerts over the coming days.

Heavy rainfall is forecast across the ABC Islands to portions of northern Venezuela and northeastern Colombia through early June 30 and across Nicaragua and Costa Rica July 1. Forecast models indicate rainfall of 10-15 cm (4-6 inches) over north-central Venezuela; 7.5-12.5 cm (3-5 inches) from Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire to northwestern Venezuela and northern Colombia; and 7.5-18 cm (3-7 inches) over Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Storm surges could raise water levels by 0.3-0.9 meters (1-3 feet) along the coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where Chaba makes landfall.

Authorities in Trinidad and Tobago closed all schools June 28 except those which have CAPE examinations scheduled due to the passage of the storm; however, classes were expected to return to normal June 29. Caribbean Airlines canceled or rescheduled dozens of domestic and international flights June 28-29.

Authorities in Venezuela have suspended classes in schools across the country June 29-30 due to the storm. In the nine northernmost states and the capital Caracas, flights have been restricted at all airports and maritime and fishing activities have been suspended. Some at-risk coastal roads and beaches have also been closed. Authorities in Curacao imposed a curfew on all residents from 11:00 June 29 and ordered all businesses to close.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center
Belize National Meteorological Service (NMS)
Colombia Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (IDEAM)
Costa Rica National Institute of Meteorology
El Salvador National Service of Territorial Studies
Hidromet (Panama)
National Weather Service
Nicaragua Institute of Territorial Studies
Venezuela National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (INAMEH)