North Atlantic: Potential TC Two has formed and is tracking west over North Atlantic Ocean late June 27

Event

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two has formed and is tracking west over the North Atlantic Ocean late June 27. As of 23:00 AST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 950 km (590 miles) east of Trinidad, Trinidad and Tobago.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will gradually strengthen as it continues tracking generally westwards across the North Atlantic Ocean, making landfall as a tropical storm over northern Trinidad and Tobago late June 28 and subsequent landfalls over Sucre then Nueva Esparta states in Venezuela early June 29. The storm is then forecast to track westwards across the far southeastern Caribbean Sea, just north of Venezuela's coastline through early June 30, before making landfall over Falcon Municipality, Falcon State, early June 30, and a subsequent landfall over northern La Guajira Department, Colombia later the same day. The storm is forecast to continue strengthening while tracking westwards across the far southern Caribean Sea through early July 2, making landfall as a Category 1 Hurricane over the South Caribbean Coast Autonomous Region in Nicaragua late July 1 and tracking generally westwards across southern Nicaragua before exiting into the North Pacific Ocean late July 2. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of late June 27, the following watches and warnings are in place:

• Tropical Storm Warning: Trinidad and Tobago as well as Grenada and its dependencies.

• Tropical Storm Watch: Bonaire and the coast of Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana, including Islas de Margarita, Coche, and Cubagua.

Officials could update and possibly extend the coverage of the relevant weather alerts over the coming days.

Heavy rainfall is forecast across the southern Windward Islands and the northeastern coast of Venezuela late June 28-29. Forecast models indicate rainfall of 2.5-7.5 cm (1-3 inches) from Guadeloupe to Saint Lucia, 7.5-10 cm (3-4 inches) over Saint Vincent, the Grenadines, and Barbados, and 10-15 cm (4-6 inches) over Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, and northeastern Venezuela.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center
Belize National Meteorological Service (NMS)
Colombia Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (IDEAM)
Costa Rica National Institute of Meteorology
El Salvador National Service of Territorial Studies
Hidromet (Panama)
National Weather Service
Nicaragua Institute of Territorial Studies
Saint Lucia Meteorological Services
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
Trinidad and Tobago Meteorological Service
Venezuela National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (INAMEH)