Pakistan, Afghanistan: Adverse weather forecast across much of Pakistan and eastern Afghanistan through at least June 22 /update 1

Event

Heavy rainfall, strong winds, and thunderstorms are forecast over much of Pakistan and parts of eastern Afghanistan through at least June 22. The heavy downpours could trigger flash and urban flooding, as well as landslides. across parts of the affected area.

The Pakistan Meteorological Department has issued a warning due to an active weather system bringing torrential rains to parts of the country over the coming days. Widespread heavy rainfall, strong winds, and thunderstorms are forecast across parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab and northeast Balochistan provinces, Islamabad Capital Territory, and Azad Jammu and Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan autonomous territories June 21-22. Rainfall, thunderstorms, and strong winds are also expected in parts of Sindh and eastern Balochistan late June 21-June 22.

The Afghanistan Meteorological Department has issued a warning for heavy rainfall, strong winds, and possible flash flooding across parts of Badakhshan, Baghlan, Bamyan, Ghazni, Ghor, Kabul, Kapisa, Khost, Kunar, Laghman, Nangarhar, Nuristan, Paktia, Paktika, Panjshir, Parwan, Samangan, Sar-e-Pol, Takhar, Wardak, and Zabul provinces June 21-22. Rainfall amounts of 2-7 cm (1-3 inches) are forecast across the affected area.

Disruptions due to flooding and landslides have been reported in parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces, as well as Gilgit-Baltistan Autononomus Territory, in Pakistan as of June 21. Five fatalities have been reported in Sibi District of Balochistan Province after a vehcile was swept away by floodwaters June 19. Roads and bridges have also been damaged by floods in neigboring Kohlu District. Two people were injured after heavy rainfall caused the rood of a house to collpase in Dera Simail Khan area of Kyber Pakhtunkhwa Province June 20. Several landslides are blocking sections of the S-1 highway in Gilgit-Baltistan between Gilgit and Skardu June 21, including in the Chamachu, Tormik, and Dambudas areas.

Hazardous Conditions
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where the soil has become saturated by heavy rainfall.

Authorities could issue mandatory evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant flooding or landslides impact utility networks.

Due to the arid nature of the region and poor stormwater management in some urban areas, even minor rainfall accumulations could quickly result in episodes of flash flooding. Flooding is possible in streams and wadis (dry riverbeds). Significant rainfall may be preceded by moderate winds and dust storms, though some areas - particularly desert areas - may experience high levels of dust without rain.

Transport
Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters.

Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancellations at airports in affected areas. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations or close beach fronts along the southern Pakistan coast if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather-related updates and advisories. Confirm all transport reservations. Stay away from low-lying areas that are prone to flash flooding. Do not attempt to navigate flooded roadways. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Pakistan Meteorological Department
Afghanistan Meteorological Department