Russia: Adverse weather forecast in Southern and North Caucasian Federal Districts through at least June 29

Event

Severe weather, including heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, strong winds, and a high risk of forest fires, is forecast across much of the Southern and North-Caucasian federal districts through at least June 29. Disruptions due to flooding following recent heavy rainfall are ongoing in Sochi as of June 27.

As of June 27, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring has issued the following weather warnings across the affected regions:

• Orange heavy rainfall warnings (the middle level on a three-tiered scale): Stavropol Krai.

• Orange other hazard warnings: for storms, rainfall, strong winds, and possible tornadoes for parts of Krasnodar Krai; and for rainfall, thunderstorms, strong winds, hail, rising rivers, and landslides for parts of the Chechen Republic, Karachay-Cherkess Republic, and the Republic of Ingushetia.

• Orange forest fire danger warnings: Astrakhan Region, Krasnodar Krai, Republic of Kalmykia, Rostov Region, Volgograd Region, and the Republic of Dagestan.

• Yellow-level heavy rainfall warnings: Krasnodar Krai, Republic of Adygea, Rostov Region, Chechen Republic, Kabardino-Balkar Republic, Republic of Ingushetia, and the Republic of North Ossetia-Alania.

• Yellow thunderstorm warnings: Krasnodar Krai, Republic of Adygea, Republic of Kalmykia, Rostov Region, Sochi, Chechen Republic, Kabardino-Balkar Republic, Karachay-Cherkess Republic, Republic of Dagestan, Republic of Ingushetia, Republic of North Ossetia-Alania, and Stavropol Krai.

• Yellow strong wind warnings: Astrakhan Region, Krasnodar Krai, Republic of Kalmykia, Chechen Republic, Kabardino-Balkar Republic, Republic of Dagestan, Republic of North Ossetia-Alania, and Stavropol Krai.

• Yellow flood warnings: Republic of North Ossetia-Alania.

• Yellow landslide warning: Republic of North Ossetia-Alania.

• Yellow other hazard warnings: for hail for parts of the Kabardino-Balkar Republic.

• Yellow forest fire danger warnings: Chechen Republic.

Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Heavy rainfall in Sochi June 24 caused rivers to burst their banks in Lazarevsky District. The resultant flooding caused damage to nearly 100 homes, affecting nearly 400 people. As of June 25, two fatalities have been reported and four others are still missing. Roads and other infrastructure in the areas have also been damaged.

Hazardous Conditions
The storms could produce rounds of heavy rainfall, strong winds, and isolated thunderstorm activity throughout the affected area. Where precipitation falls as rain, flash and areal flooding is possible. Such flooding is possible in low-lying communities near watercourses and other large bodies of water, as well as in urban areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream of large reservoirs may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Rain-induced landslides cannot be discounted in areas of elevated terrain. Power outages could occur throughout the affected area.

Transport
Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters.

Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancellations at airports in the region. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations or close beach fronts along the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea coasts if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather-related updates and advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business arrangements before traveling in the affected area. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where severe weather is forecast; plan for possible supply chain disruptions throughout the affected areas.

Stay away from elevated streams, creeks, and other watercourses that are prone to flash flooding. Do not attempt to navigate flooded roadways. Exercise caution in elevated terrain due to the threat of landslides. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring