Tunisia: Nationwide referendum on new constitution to take place July 25; demonstrations likely

Event

Demonstrations, heightened security, and associated transport disruptions are likely in Tunisia through July 25 when the nation will hold a referendum on adopting a new constitution; the plebiscite coincides with the country's annual observance of its Republic Day holiday. The vote will take place against a backdrop of serious opposition to the proposed changes to the current Tunisian constitution of 2014. Several political parties and coalitions, including the Ennahda Movement - a self-described Islamic democratic party - have called on their supporters to boycott the referendum.

At the same time, the July 25 Republic Day, which marks Tunisia's 1957 vote to abolish the country’s monarchy and establish a republic, has historically served as an occasion for major rallies and anti-government protests. Political parties and activist groups will likely also hold rallies in the days leading up to Republic Day and the referendum. Such gatherings could draw thousands of participants.

Authorities will almost certainly deploy a heavy police presence near any protests or rallies that may materialize. Clashes are possible, particularly if supporters of rival political groups come in close proximity to each other or if security personnel attempt to forcibly disperse crowds. Popular protest sites in Tunisia include public squares, city centers, and government buildings. Anti-government protests in Tunis will likely occur near the country's parliament building, Habib Bourguiba Avenue, and the Municipal Theatre, among other prominent locations. Security forces may close roads around planned protest sites to prevent demonstrators from gathering.

Context

The document that will likely replace the existing constitution of 2014 significantly expands the powers of the presidency. Under the new constitution, there would be few checks and balances on presidential power. If adopted, the new constitution would also seriously impact judicial authority within the country, as it would enable the president to remove and appoint any judge he or she wishes. The proposed new constitution also removes the provision that military courts only be used for military-related offenses, thereby legalizing the use of courts-martial to try civilians. Furthermore, it would introduce the Council of Regions and Districts, which would function as the upper second chamber of parliament. The document would also strip the police, army, judiciary, and customs officials of the right to engage in any kind of labor strikes.

The new constitution would also replace the power-sharing under the current parliamentary-presidential hybrid system with a strong presidential system akin to the one that existed before the Tunisian Revolution of 2011. It would also enable the president to appoint a head of government - a position somewhat equivalent to a prime minister. The president would appoint government ministers from a list of candidates the head of government submits. However, unlike the constitution of 2014, the parliamentary sanction would no longer be required to approve ministers.

While the new document maintains the two-term, five-year limit on the presidency, it removes the provision stating that the constitution cannot be amended to increase the number of presidential terms. Additionally, there is no clause within the draft that allows for impeachment or removal of the president.

President Kais Saied, who was elected in 2019, dissolved Tunisia's parliament, suspended the country's constitution, and removed the prime minister on July 25, 2021. He has ruled by decree since. Saied remains popular, having pledged to bring about reforms and to rid the country of alleged institutional corruption. However, the country’s socio-economic conditions have worsened during his tenure, especially since the emergence of COVID-19. Therefore, although the Tunisian public has generally been supportive of the president's policies to date, it is unlikely that he can maintain his current level of support if the country's economy continues to deteriorate.

Advice

Avoid all events related to Republic Day and the referendum. Avoid all demonstrations due to the potential for violence. Plan accordingly for widespread transport and business disruptions. Seek updated information from trusted local sources on election-related developments. Follow all instructions from police. Do not attempt to photograph or otherwise record demonstrations. Immediately leave the area and seek shelter in a secure, nongovernmental building if violence erupts. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation.