15 Jul 2022 | 03:12 PM UTC
UK: Heatwave forecast over most of England, Wales, and southern Scotalnd through at least July 19 /update 1
Heatwave forecast over large parts of the UK through at least July 19. Transport and power disruptions possible. Health concerns likely.
Event
Forecast models indicate that a heatwave will develop over large parts of the UK through at least July 19. Forecast models indicate that temperatures will rise from July 17 and peak July 18 or July 19 before declining from July 20. Temperatures above 35 C (95 F) are possible in parts of England and Wales during the peak of the heatwave. The Met Office has forecast a 50-percent chance of maximum temperatures exceeding 40 C (104 F) in isolated parts of the UK and an 80-percent chance of the record UK high temperature of 38.7 C (101.7 F) being broken July 18-19.
As of July 15, Met Office UK has issued red (the highest level on a three-tier scale) extreme heat warnings across parts of central, southeastern, eastern, and northwestern England July 18-19. Amber extreme heat warnings have been issued for most of England, with the exception of some northern and far western areas, and eastern Wales July 17 and across most of England, Wales, and parts of southern Scotland July 18-19. A Level 4 (the highest level on a four-tier scale) UK Health Security Agency Heat Health Alert is in place July 18-19. The government is treating the situation as a national emergency. Officials could expand the alerts and warnings over the coming days.
Avanti West Coast has warned that train services between London Euston and Scotland may be canceled at short notice July 16-17, while amended timetables and extended journey times are likely July 18-19 due to extreme weather conditions. The Great Central Railway in Leicestershire canceled services July 19 due to the high temperature forecast. Authorities may impose blanket speed restrictions for rail services across the affected area if temperatures exceed 35 C (95 F); rail disruptions are likely.
Hazardous Conditions
The extended period of oppressive heat and dry conditions may produce ideal circumstances for additional wildfire growth throughout the region. Heatwaves also pose a threat to vulnerable groups - such as the elderly, children, pregnant women, and those with respiratory illnesses - due to the increased possibility of heat stroke or heat exhaustion during prolonged exposure to high temperatures. These health risks could also extend to relatively healthy individuals during significant heatwave events. In addition to significantly impacting athletes and those who work outdoors, high temperatures can cause problems for people using mass transit. The lack of air conditioning and cramped vehicles during rush hour may lead to some passengers being hospitalized for dehydration.
Transport and Utilities
Very high temperatures may warp rail tracks and force passenger and freight trains to operate at reduced speeds. Road surface damage is also possible, and overheated vehicles may worsen traffic problems in urban areas where congestion is already a problem. Commercial trucking disruptions might occur, as very high temperatures put more stress on engines, making tire blowouts more common. Major flight disruptions are unlikely at regional airports, but general aviation disruptions are possible, and some airfreight carriers could reduce cargo loads. High temperatures could lead to an increased demand for electricity, which might trigger localized brownouts or blackouts, exacerbating hazardous conditions when air conditioning is no longer possible.
Advice
Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. During heatwaves, remain indoors in air conditioning when possible. If outdoor activities are necessary, frequently rest in shaded areas; avoid activity during the hottest times of the day. Stay well-hydrated by drinking plenty of fluids. Avoid alcoholic beverages, which are dehydrating; drink water that is bottled or has been boiled. Wear loose-fitting, light-colored clothing. Cotton fabrics are more cooling than synthetics. Promptly seek medical attention if signs of heat exhaustion or heat stroke develop. Charge battery-powered devices in case prolonged electricity outages occur.
