Afghanistan: Adverse weather forecast across eastern and southeastern regions through at least Aug. 12

Event

Severe weather, including heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and possible floods, is forecast across parts of eastern and southeastern Afghanistan through at least Aug. 12. As of early Aug. 12, the Afghanistan Meteorological Department has issued a weather warning, stating that rainfall totals of 1-4 cm (0.4-1.6 inches) are forecast over parts of Badakshan, Daykundi, Ghazni, Kabul, Kandahar, Kapisa, Khost, Kunar, Laghman, Logar, Nangarhar, Nuristan, Paktia, Paktika, Panjshir, Parwan, Wardak, and Zabul provinces. Red warnings (the highest level on a three-tier scale) are in place over parts of far eastern Badakshan, southern Kabul, northeastern Kapisa, most of Khost, eastern Kunar, northern Laghman, northern Logar, most of Nangarhar, eastern and western Nuristan, eastern Paktia, eastern and southern Paktika, southern Panjshir, southeastern Parwan, far southeastern Wardak, and eastern Zabul provinces. Orange warnings are in effect over the rest of the affected area. Officials could update and possibly extend the coverage of weather alerts over the coming days.

Intermittent heavy rain and flash floods since May resulted in dozens of fatalities. Reports indicate that at least 39 people have died in the most recent floods July 24-Aug. 1. At least 1,206 houses have been damaged. Further adverse weather is likely to exacerbate the situation and hamper recovery efforts.

Hazardous Conditions
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed or a lack of stormwater drainage systems. Sites downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where the soil has become saturated by heavy rainfall. Power outages could occur throughout the affected area.

Due to the arid nature of the region and poor stormwater management, even minor rainfall accumulations could quickly result in episodes of flash flooding. Flooding is possible in streams and dry riverbeds.

Transport
The severe weather will likely contribute to transport disruptions throughout the region. Traffic and commercial trucking delays might occur along regional highways. Flooding downpours could inundate some low-lying roads in areas with poor drainage. Strong winds might also pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles. Hazardous weather conditions might cause flight delays and cancellations at airports in the affected regions.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after conditions have improved; it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or debris is cleared. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments prior to travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays, as well as potential supply chain disruptions, where flooding has been forecast. Do not drive on flooded roads.

Resources

Afghanistan Meteorological Department