Kenya: Heightened security likely nationwide through Aug. 9 general elections /update 1

Event

Kenyan authorities will likely maintain a heightened security posture nationwide through Aug. 9 as part of the preparation for the nation's general elections. Voters will be voting for a president, members of the National Assembly, the Senate, and members of the county assemblies. President Uhuru Kenyatta will step down, prompting intense competition between two major political coalitions – the Azimio la Umajo One-Kenya Coalition, led by Raila Odinga, and Kenya Kwanza Alliance (KKA), led by Deputy President William Ruto. While Ruto and Odinga signed a charter promising peaceful elections, they have also continued to accuse the electoral commission of bias.

All election-related events are likely to cause business and transport disruptions. Security forces will likely deploy to large urban centers and areas hosting opposition party events. The potential for clashes may increase if security forces try to disperse gatherings or prevent political activists from assembling. Authorities may use tear gas, water cannons, baton charges, rubber bullets, and live ammunition to disperse crowds. Security forces may also enforce curfews and movement restrictions due to violence.

Context

Election-related violence has a history in Kenya, and violence has already occurred in several locations during the primary elections and campaign period ahead of the Aug. 9 polls. Some incidents of violence and attacks on candidates have also been reported during rallies. The National Cohesion and Integration Commission (NCIC) has identified Nairobi, Mombasa, Nakuru, Kericho, Kisumu, and Uasin Gishu as possible hotspots for violence. The NCIC also identified indicators of potential election-related violence as ethnic and political polarization and increased use of inflammatory rhetoric by politicians and their supporters.

Kenyatta and Ruto have been in a feud since the President pushed for Ruto's resignation, asserting that he had failed to perform his duties as required. Kenyatta formally endorsed the longtime opposition leader Odinga to succeed him instead of Ruto, complicating the ethnic voting that has usually decided elections in the past.

Advice

If operating in Kenya, exercise increased personal vigilance for the duration of the election period. Avoid all demonstrations and associated gatherings due to the possibility of violence. Keep away from areas where security personnel appear to be deploying. If clashes break out nearby, take shelter in a safe, nongovernmental building. Heed all instructions from security personnel, and allow additional travel time near gatherings.