Caribbean Sea: Hurricane Ian tracking north-northwestward late Sept. 26 /update 4

Event

Hurricane Ian is tracking north-northwestward in the western Caribbean Sea late Sept. 26. As of 23:00 EDT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 170 km (105 miles) east-southeast of the western tip of Cuba.

Forecast models indicate the system will make landfall as a Category 2 hurricane over far western Cuba early Sept. 27. Ian is forecast to turn northward as it crosses western Cuba, potentially strengthening into a Category 4 hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico by late Sept. 27. The system will likely weaken into a Category 3 hurricane before landfall over Central Florida early Sept. 29. Ian will weaken further after landfall as it tracks northward across Florida, southeastern Georgia, and western South Carolina before dissipating over northern South Carolina late Oct. 1. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of late Sept. 26, authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:

• Hurricane Warning: Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa; Englewood to the Anclote River including Tampa Bay; Dry Tortugas

• Hurricane Watch: north of Anclote River to the Suwannee River; Bonita Beach to Englewood

• Tropical Storm Warning: Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas; Lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West; Flamingo to Englewood

• Tropical Storm Watch: Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge; Lake Okeechobee; north of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass; Jupiter Inlet to Altamaha Sound

• Storm Surge Warning: Anclote River southward to Flamingo; Tampa Bay

• Storm Surge Watch: the Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West; Dry Tortugas; Florida Bay; Aucilla River to Anclote River; Altamaha Sound to the Flagler-Volusia County Line; Saint Johns River

Officials could issue new warnings and/or watches in response to the developing system in the coming hours. Authorities in the US issued an emergency declaration for Florida Sept. 24 in advance of the storm.

Forecast models predict rainfall accumulations of 15-25 cm (6-10 inches) over western Cuba, 10-15 cm (4-6 inches) over the Florida Keys, Southeast Florida, and coastal Southwest, 15-30 cm (6-12 inches) in Central West Florida, 15-25 cm (6-10 inches) in Northeast Florida, and 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) over the rest of the Central Florida Peninsula.

Widespread significant flash and urban flooding, as well as prolonged significant river flooding, is likely Sept. 28-30 across central and northern Florida, southern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina. Flash and urban flooding are also possible across southern Florida through Sept. 28 while limited flash and river flooding are possible over portions of the Southeast Sept. 28-30. Tornadoes are possible late Sept. 26-27 across the Florida Keys and the southern to central Florida Peninsula.

Storm surge in Florida could raise water levels above normal tide levels by 1.5-3 meters (5-10 feet) from Anclote River to the middle of Longboat Key including Tampa Bay, 1.5-2.4 meters (5-8 feet) from Suwannee River to Anclote River and from the middle Longboat Key to Englewood, and 1.2-2 meters (4-7 feet) from Englewood to Bonita Beach. Smaller storm surges are forecast across the rest of the coast of Florida. Swells generated by the storm system are affecting the western Caribbean; they will probably affect the Florida Keys Sept. 27 and spread northward throughout the eastern Gulf of Mexico Sept. 28.

Authorities have evacuated more than 19,000 people from Pinar del Rio Province in western Cuba to 55 shelters across the province.

Authorities in Florida have evacuated around 300,000 people from parts of Charlotte, Hernando, Hillsborough, Manatee, and Pinellas counties, including the cities of Clearwater, St Petersburg, and Tampa. Voluntary evacuation orders are in place across portions of Sarasota County. Officials plan to suspend SunRail corridor services in Central Florida and Port Tampa Bay from early Sept. 27. Tampa International Airport (TPA) is scheduled to suspend operations from the evening of Sept. 27 while St. Pete–Clearwater International Airport (PIE) is scheduled to close from the afternoon of Sept. 27. Oil companies in the Gulf of Mexico have halted operations at some facilities.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at other regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast typhoon or tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center
Cuban Meteorological Institute
US National Weather Service