23 Sep 2022 | 11:28 AM UTC
Caribbean Sea: Tropical Depression Nine forms and is tracking west-northwestwards early Sept. 23
TD 9 tracking west-northwestwards in the central Caribbean Sea early Sept. 23. Close approach to the Cayman Islands early Sept. 26.
Event
Tropical Depression Nine has formed and is tracking west-northwestward in the central Caribbean Sea early Sept. 23. As of 05:00 AST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 985km (615 miles) east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica.
Forecast models indicate the system will strengthen into a tropical storm as it continues to track west-northwestward in the central Caribbean Sea Sept. 23-24. The storm is expected to strengthen further as it turns to track northwestward Sept. 25 and is forecast to become a Category 1 hurricane before making a close approach to the Cayman Islands early Sept. 26. The system is forecast to strengthen into a Category 2 hurricane before making a further landfall over eastern Cuba early Sept. 27. The storm is then expected to turn north-northeastward as it crosses eastern Cuba Sept, 27 and cross the Florida Straight before passing over or close to the western Florida Keys late Sept. 27 and approaching the southwest coast of the Florida Peninsula early Sept. 28. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.
As of 05:00 AST Sept. 23, authorities have not yet issued any watches or warnings in relation to the storm. Officials could issue new warnings and/or watches in response to the developing system in the coming hours.
Forecast models predict additional rainfall accumulations of 2.5-5 cm (1-2 inches) over Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao. Rainfall accumulations of 5-12.5 cm (2-5 inches) are forecast over northern Venezuela and 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches) over northern Colombia. Accumulations of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) are forecast over Jamaica and the Cayman Islands and 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) over southern Haiti and the southern Dominican Republic. The heavy rainfall could produce flood impacts in the affected areas, including flash and urban flooding, as well as landslides over higher terrain. Swells generated by the storm system will begin to affect Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and Cuba over the coming days.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.
The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.
Advice
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast typhoon or tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
