Caribbean Sea: Tropical Storm Fiona tracking west-northwestward as of early Sept. 18 /update 5

Event

Tropical Storm Fiona is tracking west-northwestward in the Caribbean Sea early Sept. 18. The storm made landfall over Guadeloupe late Sept. 16. As of 05:00 AST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 130 km (80 miles) southeast of Ponce, Puerto Rico.

Forecast models indicate the system will strengthen into a category 1 hurricane and make landfall over southwestern Puerto Rico the afternoon of Sept. 18. Fiona is subsequently likely to pass just northeast of the Dominican Republic early Sept. 19 and make a close approach to the Turks and Caicos Islands early Sept. 20. After passing east of the Turks and Caicos Islands, Fiona is likely to strengthen further into a category 2 hurricane as it gradually turns to track northeast, making a close approach to Bermuda early Sept. 23. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Sept. 18, authorities had issued tropical storm warnings and watches for the following locations:

Hurricane Warning

• Puerto Rico, including Vieques and Culebra

• the coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Caucedo to Cabo Frances Viejo

Hurricane Watch

• US Virgin Islands

• the north coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo westward to Puerto Plata

Tropical Storm Warning

• US Virgin Islands

• The British Virgin Islands

• the north coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Frances Viejo westward to Puerto Plata

Tropical Storm Watch

• the south coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to Barahona

• Turks and Caicos Islands

• the southeastern Bahamas

Officials could issue new warnings and/or watches in response to the developing system in the coming hours.

Forecast models predict additional rainfall of 5 cm (2 inches) over the Leeward Islands and the northern Windward Islands. Rainfall accumulations of 10-15 cm (4-6 inches) across the British and US Virgin Islands, 30-40 cm (12-16 inches) across Puerto Rico, 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) across the eastern and northern Dominican Republic, 2.5-7.5 cm (1-3 inches) in Haiti and the rest of the Dominican Republic, and 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches) over the Turks and Caicos Islands are likely. The heavy rainfall could produce considerable flood impacts in the affected areas, especially across Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic, including flash and urban flooding, as well as landslides over higher terrain. Storm surge and consequent localized coastal flooding are possible along the coasts of Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands over the coming days.

Due to hazardous conditions, authorities have closed ports in Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands to inbound commercial vessel traffic. Authorities have confirmed one fatality in Basse-Terre District, Guadeloupe, Sept. 17, when a house was swept away by floods. At least two other people in Guadeloupe remain missing. The storm left 13,000 people across Guadeloupe without power. Dozens of flights at Luis Munoz Marin International Airport (SJU) in Puerto Rico have been canceled Sept. 18 in advance of the storm. Additional flight disruptions are likely as the storm approaches and weather conditions worsen.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm or hurricane conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center