East China Sea: Typhoon Muifa tracking northward as of early Sept. 13; landfall forecast over far northeast Zhejiang Province, China late Sept. 14. /update 5

Event

Typhoon Muifa is tracking northward over the East China Sea early Sept. 13. As of 12:00 JST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 370 km (230 miles) west-southwest of Kadena Airbase, Okinawa Prefecture, Japan.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will weaken slightly before making landfalls as a typhoon over China's northeastern Zhejiang Province late Sept. 14 and as a tropical storm over Shanghai and Jiangsu Province in eastern China early Sept. 15. The storm is forecast to weaken further to a tropical depression as it tracks northwestward over Jiangsu Province through Sept. 16 before dissipating over southern Shandong Province early Sept. 17. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has warned of rough seas, storm surge, heavy rainfall, and strong winds over the Sakishima Islands in Okinawa Prefecture through Sept. 13. Rainfall totals of around 10 cm (4 inches) are likely over affected areas of Okinawa Prefecture through early Sept. 14. Heavy rainfall may be accompanied by thunderstorms and could trigger flooding and landslides over affected islands. Storm surge is possible around coasts and river mouths on the Sakishima Islands through Sept. 13. As of early Sept. 13, the JMA has issued orange high waves and storm warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale) across Okinawa's Ishigakijima and Yonagunijima regions. Yellow advisories are in place over the rest of Okinawa Prefecture.

The Taiwan Central Weather Bureau has issued orange extremely heavy rain advisories (the second lowest level on a four-tier scale) for parts of Hsinchu Miaoli, and Yilan counties as well as New Taipei and Taoyuan cities through Sept. 13. Yellow heavy rain advisories are in place across the rest of northern and central Taiwan.

The China Meteorological Administration had issued an orange typhoon warning (the second-highest level on a four-tier scale) advising strong winds are expected over many eastern coastal waters and heavy rainfall in southern Jiangsu, Shanghai, and central and northern Zhejiang provinces. Rainfall amounts of 10-18 cm (4-7 inches) are possible in affected areas through the afternoon of Sept. 14. The heaviest rainfall is likely over Shanghai Municipality and northeastern Zhejiang Province.

Officials will likely issue relevant weather alerts and warnings over the coming days as the system progresses.

Authorities in Okinawa Prefecture have issued evacuation orders for elderly and disabled people in Ishigaki and Miyakojima cities as well as Taketomi Town and Tarama Village; emergency crews have established evacuation centers across the affected area. As of early Sept. 13, 4,880 households in Ishigaki City, 1,290 households in Taketomi Town, and 470 households in Tarama Village are without power.

All Nippon Airways (NH) canceled some flights at New Ishigaki Airport (ISG) and Miyako Airport (MMY) Sept. 13. Japan Airlines (JL) canceled some flights at New Ishigaki (ISG), Tarama (TRA), Yonaguni (OGN), Kumejima (UEO), and Miyako (MMY) airports Sept. 13.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at other regional airports and temporary closures of ports may occur. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Japan Meteorological Agency
Taiwan Central Weather Bureau
China Meteorological Administration
Korea Meteorological Administration