East China Sea: Typhoon Muifa tracks north-northwestward early Sept. 14; landfall forecast in northeastern Zhejiang Province, China, late Sept. 14 /update 7

Event

Typhoon Muifa is tracking north-northwestward over the East China Sea early Sept. 14. As of 11:00 CST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 396 km (246 miles) south-southeast of Shanghai, China.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will slightly weaken before making landfall as a typhoon over northeastern Zhejiang Province, China, late Sept. 14 and Shanghai and southern Jiangsu Province late Sept. 14-early Sept. 15. The system is then forecast to weaken further into a tropical storm as it tracks north-northwestward across Jiangsu Province Sept. 15 before turning to track north-northeastwards and making another landfall over Shandong Province late Sept. 15. Muifa is likely to exit into the Yellow Sea early Sept. 16 and make landfall over far southern Liaoning Province early Sept. 17 before dissipating over the southern part of the province late that day. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early Sept. 14, the China Meteorological Administration had issued an orange typhoon warning (the second-highest level on a four-tier scale), cautioning that strong winds are forecast over many eastern coastal waters, as well as Shanghai and coastal areas of Zhejiang and Jiangsu through at least early Sept. 15. A yellow rainstorm warning is in place. Heavy rainfall is likely in parts of eastern Anhui, southern Liaoning, central and eastern Shandong, Shanghai, Jiangsu, and central and northern Zhejiang provinces over the same period; notably, rainfall totals of 25-28 cm (9-11 inches) are forecast in northeastern Zhejiang Province.

Additionally, flood warnings are in place across southern Jiangsu, Shanghai, and eastern and northern Zhejiang provinces, with the highest risk over northeastern Zhejiang Province. Landslide warnings are in effect over eastern, central, and northern Zhejiang Province, with the highest risk over northeastern Zhejiang Province. Officials will likely issue relevant weather alerts and warnings over the coming days as the system progresses.

As of early Sept. 14, authorities in Zhejiang Province have evacuated around 13,000 people from islands and tourist sites near Zhoushan. Authorities have ordered all fishing vessels to return to port. Almost 7,400 commercial vessels are sheltering in ports across the province, including Zhoushan, Ningbo, and Taizhou ports. Authorities have also suspended passenger ship routes. Schools in Ningbo, Zhoushan, and Taizhou cities are suspended Sept. 14.

Shanghai authorities have suspended all port operations from early Sept. 14 as well as some train services in the Yangtze River Delta region in advance of the storm. Some shipping services, including the high-speed ships between Chongming and Baoyang and between Baozhen and Baoyang, are also suspended.

As of early Sept. 14, more than 350 flights at Shanghai Pudong International Airport (PVG) and more than 250 flights at Shanghai Hongqiao International Airport (SHA) have been canceled due to adverse weather conditions. China Southern Airlines (CZ) is planning to cancel all flights at PVG from early Sept. 14 through the afternoon of Sept. 15 and at SHA from the afternoon of Sept. 14 through the afternoon of Sept. 15. Various other airlines have also canceled numerous flights at both airports.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at other regional airports and temporary closures of ports may occur. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast typhoon or tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the storm's path, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
China Meteorological Administration