Gulf of Mexico: Hurricane Ian tracking northward Sept. 27 /update 5

Event

Hurricane Ian is tracking northward in the eastern Gulf of Mexico Sept. 27, having made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane over western Cuba earlier the same day. As of 11:00 EDT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 200 km (125 miles) south-southwest of the Dry Tortugas, Florida.

Forecast models indicate the system will strengthen into a Category 4 hurricane as it tracks north-northeastward over the Gulf of Mexico late Sept. 27-early Sept. 28, passing close to or over the western Florida Keys late Sept. 27. The storm is expected to weaken slightly to a Category 3 hurricane as it turns to track northeastward before making landfall south of Tampa, Florida, late Sept. 28. Ian will weaken rapidly after landfall as it tracks northeastward, then north-northeastward, and northward across Florida and into southeastern Georgia Sept. 29-Oct. 1. The system is then expected to weaken further as it tracks north-northeastward across inland South Carolina Oct.1 before dissipating near the North Carolina border early Oct. 2. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of Sept. 27, authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:

• Hurricane Warning: Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa. In Florida, Englewood to the Anclote River including Tampa Bay; Dry Tortugas.

• Hurricane Watch: North of Anclote River to the Suwannee River; Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee.

• Tropical Storm Warning: Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas. In Florida, Suwannee River to the Anclote River; Flamingo to Bonita Beach; Lower and Middle Florida Keys; Boca Raton to Altamaha Sound; Lake Okeechobee.

• Tropical Storm Watch: Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge; Lake Okeechobee; north of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass; Jupiter Inlet to Altamaha Sound

• Storm Surge Warning: Suwanee River southward to Flamingo; Tampa Bay; Dry Tortugas; Marineland to the mouth of the St. Mary's River; St. Johns River.

• Storm Surge Watch: the Florida Keys from the Card Sound Bridge westward to Key West; Florida Bay; Aucilla River to Suwanee River; Mouth of St. Mary's River to South Santee River; South of Marineland to the Volusia/Flagler county line.

The US National Weather Service has issued a tornado watch across parts of southern Florida through at least 17:00 EDT Sept. 27. Authorities issued an emergency declaration for Florida Sept. 24 in advance of the storm. Officials could issue new warnings and/or watches in response to the developing system in the coming hours.

Forecast models predict rainfall accumulations late Sept. 27-early Sept. 28 of 15-30 cm (6-12 inches) over western Cuba; 10-15 cm (4-6 inches) over the Florida Keys and southern Florida; 30-40 cm (12-16 inches) in central-west Florida; and 12.5-25 cm (5-10 inches) in northeastern Florida and the remainder of the central Florida Peninsular. Heavy rainfall is also expected to affect much of the southeastern US Sept. 30-Oct. 1.

Widespread significant flash and urban flooding, as well as prolonged significant river flooding, is likely Sept. 28-Oct. 1 across central and northern Florida, southern Georgia, and coastal South Carolina. Flash and urban flooding are also possible across southern Florida through Sept. 28, while limited flash and river flooding are possible over portions of the Southeast Sept. 28-Oct. 1.

Storm surge could raise water levels above normal tide levels by up to 3.7 meters (up to 12 feet) from the middle of Longboat Key to Bonita Beach, including Charlotte Harbor, and between 0.3-2.4 meters (1-8 feet) across many other parts of the Florida coast. Swells generated by the storm system are affecting the western Caribbean and the Florida Keys and are expected to spread northward throughout the eastern Gulf of Mexico late Sept. 27-28.

Authorities evacuated more than 50,000 people from Pinar del Rio Province in western Cuba to 55 shelters across the province. Flooding, strong winds, and storm surge have been reported in parts of western Cuba early Sept. 27, and adverse conditions are expected to continue through at least late Sept. 27. Power outages and damage to homes have been reported in parts of Pinar de Rio Province.

Authorities in Florida have issued mandatory and voluntary evacuation orders for around 2.5 million people across parts of Charlotte, Hernando, Hillsborough, Lee, Manatee, Pasco, Pinellas. and Sarasota counties, including the cities of Clearwater, St Petersburg, and Tampa. Officials plan to suspend SunRail corridor services in Central Florida and Port Tampa Bay from early Sept. 27. Tampa International Airport (TPA) is scheduled to suspend operations from the evening of Sept. 27 while St. Pete–Clearwater International Airport (PIE) is scheduled to close from the afternoon of the same day. Oil companies in the Gulf of Mexico have halted operations at some facilities.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at other regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast typhoon or tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center
Cuban Meteorological Institute
US National Weather Service