17 Sep 2022 | 09:33 AM UTC
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan: Ceasefire in effect on Tajikistan-Kyrgyzstan frontier, as of early Sept. 17 /update 2
Ceasefire largely in effect on Tajikistan-Kyrgyzstan frontier, as of early Sept. 17. Further clashes remain possible.
Event
A ceasefire agreed between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan remains largely in effect as of Sept. 17. Apart from a few clashes, no major incidents have been reported since late Sept. 16. Kyrgyzstan reported that shelling for a few minutes affected a border village of Pasky-Aryk early Sept. 17. Authorities in Kyrgyzstan also reported that Tajik forces fired at border guards in the Osh Region, who returned fire but stopped shortly after to avoid an escalation of the conflict.
The ceasefire comes following days of fighting and an escalation of attacks on the Tajik-Kyrgyz border on Sept. 16. The two sides have released conflicting reports on the events, and casualties remain unclear. However, as of Sept. 16, Kyrgyzstan reported 24 deaths and dozens of injuries and, while Tajikistan has not provided official casualty numbers, security sources stated at least seven people have been killed.
Tensions will remain high and military maneuvers are likely in the coming days. Continued military operations, further skirmishes, and localized escalations in violence could occur without warning anywhere in the conflict zone. Violations of the ceasefire could result in a significant escalation of violence. Heightened security and transport disruptions are likely near the impacted area in the coming days.
Context
Approximately half of the 970-km (602-mile) border shared by Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan has not yet been officially demarcated. Hence, clashes across the disputed border have frequently erupted since the two nations became independent with the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union. While most such incidents are small in scale and locally contained, a four-day border conflict between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan that began April 2021 left at least 50 people dead and over 40,000 civilians displaced.
Advice
Exercise heightened caution if operating in the border area between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Allow additional time for cross-border travel and for travel in areas near the shared border; carry relevant identification documents, and remain polite and nonconfrontational if questioned by security forces. Leave the area immediately at the first sign of a confrontation.
