Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan: Kyrgyzstan declares state of emergency in Batken District Sept. 18 /update 3

Event

Authorities in Kyrgyzstan have declared a state of emergency in the Batken Region, as of Sept. 18, amid elevated tensions following armed border clashes between Kyrgyz and Tajik security forces. The emergency measures enable the deployment of additional forces to stabilize the border region and assist with evacuating villages. While a ceasefire agreed upon between the parties is largely holding in border regions of the Batken Region on Sept. 18, security forces reportedly exchanged gunfire across the border in the Chon-Alai District of Kyrgyzstan's Osh Region, which borders Tajikistan's northern Lakhsh District, on Sept. 17. Kyrgyz authorities have evacuated around 5,000 residents from five villages near the border, including Karamyk, Teshik-Tash, and Karool-Dobo.

The ceasefire and state of emergency come following days of fighting and an escalation of attacks on multiple points along the Tajik-Kyrgyz border since Sept. 14. The authorities of each side have released conflicting reports regarding casualties and violence. However, apart from sporadic clashes, no major incidents have been reported since late Sept. 16. Kyrgyzstan reports 36 civilians killed and over 100 wounded, while Tajikistan reports 39 people killed, including both civilians and military personnel.

Tensions will remain high and military maneuvers are likely in the coming days. Continued military operations, further skirmishes, and localized escalations in violence could occur without warning anywhere in the conflict zone. Violations of the ceasefire could result in a significant escalation of violence. Heightened security and transport disruptions are likely near the impacted area in the coming days.

Context

The recent clashes are the most severe since a four-day border conflict between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan in April 2021 left at least 50 people dead and over 40,000 civilians displaced. However, in that instance, violence remained concentrated in areas of the Batken Region close to Tajikistan's Vorukh exclave. In recent years, both Tajik and Kyrgyz authorities have taken steps to increase security along the shared border, while accusing each other of militarizing the region. Tensions over water rights, smuggling, and illegal border crossing are generally the root of occasional, small-scale violence in the region.

Given the ongoing tensions and increasing militarization of the border, further clashes are likely until border demarcation issues are resolved. Approximately half of the 970-km (602-mile) border shared by Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan has not yet been officially demarcated. Hence, clashes across the disputed border have frequently erupted since the two nations became independent with the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union.

Advice

Exercise heightened caution if operating in the border area between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Allow additional time for cross-border travel and for travel in areas near the shared border; carry relevant identification documents, and remain polite and nonconfrontational if questioned by security forces. Leave the area immediately at the first sign of a confrontation.