04 Sep 2022 | 12:38 AM UTC
North Atlantic Ocean: Tropical Storm Earl is tracking west-northwestwards in the southern North Atlantic Ocean evening Sept. 3 /update 1
TS Earl tracking west-northwestwards in the southern North Atlantic Ocean early Sept. 3. Close approach to Virgin Islands early Sept. 4.
Event
Tropical Storm Earl is tracking west-northwestwards in the southern North Atlantic Ocean the evening of Sept. 3. As of 17:00 AST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 125 km (75 miles) north of the northern Leeward Islands. Forecast models indicate the system will continue to track west-northwestward and make a close approach to the Virgin Islands early Sept. 4. Earl is then likely to gradually turn to track northwestward, away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands through Sept. 4. The storm is forecast to continue gradually turning anti-clockwise to eventually track northeast while strengthening into a Category 1 Hurricane through Sept. 8. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.
As of 17:00 AST Sept. 3, authorities have not yet issued any watches or warnings related to the storm. Officials could issue new warnings and/or watches in response to the developing system in the coming hours. 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) of rainfall, with isolated totals of 15 cm (6 inches) are forecast across the Leeward Islands, US and British Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through Sept. 4; limited floods and flash floods are possible. Rapid river level rises and landslides in steep terrain are possible, especially across the central interior region of Puerto Rico. Gusty winds are forecast over the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through Sept. 4.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.
The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.
Advice
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast typhoon or tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
