15 Sep 2022 | 11:22 AM UTC
North Atlantic Ocean: Tropical Storm Fiona tracking westward early Sept. 15
TS Fiona tracking westward in the southern North Atlantic Ocean early Sept. 15. Landfall likely over northern Leeward Islands late Sept. 16.
Event
Tropical Storm Fiona is tracking westward in the southern North Atlantic Ocean early Sept. 15. As of 05:00 AST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 1935 km (580 miles) east of the Leeward Islands.
Forecast models indicate the system will strengthen slightly as it tracks west-northwestward then westward Sept. 15 and will maintain tropical storm strength as it approaches the northern Leeward Islands Sept. 16. The storm will pass over the islands late Sept. 16-early Sept. 17, making a close approach to Antigua and Barbuda and St. Kitts and Nevis and possibly making landfall over Aruba early Sept. 17. The system is expected to maintain strength as it continues to track generally westward Sept. 17, with further landfall likely over the US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico. The storm is then forecast to turn to track west-northwestward Sept. 18, making another landfall over the east coast of the Dominican Republic late Sept. 18, before turning to track northwestward towards the Turks and Caicos Islands Sept. 19. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.
As of 05:00 AST Sept. 15, authorities have issued tropical storm watches across Saba and St. Eustatius, St. Maarten, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, Montserrat, and Anguilla. Officials could issue new warnings and/or watches in response to the developing system in the coming hours.
Forecast models indicate rainfall accumulations of 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches) across the northern Leeward Islands from Sept. 16, British and US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico from Sept. 17, and eastern Hispaniola from Sept. 18; isolated flash and urban flooding and isolated landslides over higher terrain are possible. Swells are forecast to impact the northern Leeward Islands from Sept. 16; swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.
The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.
Advice
Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast typhoon or tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.
Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.
