Philippine Sea: Typhoon Muifa tracking north-northwestward late Sept. 10 /update 2

Event

Typhoon Muifa is tracking north-northwestward over the Philippine Sea late Sept. 10. As of 21:00 JST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 578 km (359 miles) south of Kadena Airbase, Okinawa Prefecture, Japan.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen further as it tracks northwestward and then north-northwestward over the Philippine Sea Sept. 11-12, before making landfall over the Yaeyama Islands, Okinawa Prefecture, Sept. 12. The system is expected to weaken slightly and turn to track northward as it enters the East China Sea Sept. 13. The storm is then forecast to weaken further and become a tropical storm as it tracks north-northwestward over or just off the coasts of Zhejiang and Jiangsu provinces in eastern China Sept. 14-15. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has warned of rough seas, heavy rainfall, and strong winds over the Sakishima Islands in Okinawa Prefecture Sept. 11-13. Winds of around 126 kph (78 mph) are expected in the region Sept. 11 and 144-180 kph (89-112 mph) Sept. 12. Waves of around 7 meters (23 feet) are expected in coastal areas Sept. 11 and 10 meters (33 feet) Sept. 12. Heavy rainfall may be accompanied by thunderstorms and could trigger flooding and landslides over affected islands. As of late Sept. 10, the JMA has issued yellow storm gale, high waves, and thunderstorm advisories (the lowest level on a three-tier scale) across parts of southern Okinawa Prefecture and some of the advisories have a high probability of being upgraded to warnings. The Taiwan Central Weather Bureau, China Meteorological Administration, and Korea Meteorological Administration have yet to issue any warnings regarding the storm system. Officials will likely issue relevant weather alerts and warnings over the coming days as the system progresses.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Japan Meteorological Agency
Taiwan Central Weather Bureau
China Meteorological Administration
Korea Meteorological Administration