Russia: President Vladimir Putin announces partial military mobilization Sept. 21; opposition calls for protests

Event

President Vladimir Putin signed a decree Sept. 21 initiating a partial military mobilization amid the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine. The measure allows for up to 300,000 military reservists to be conscripted. Putin states additional military personnel are now required due to the front line reaching additional parts of the Russian state border, to counter increased shelling of Russian border areas, and to defend against a feared Ukrainian offensive into Russian-occupied areas of the Donbas.

Russia's armed forces will only call up reservists with combat experience; they must receive mandatory training before being deployed. The length of the training period is currently unclear.

Protests
In response, opposition groups, including the social movement "Spring", have called for protests in urban centers across the country to denounce the war and the mobilization. Gatherings will commence in as yet unspecified central areas of cities and towns starting at 19:00.

Security forces will almost certainly deploy heavily to all related rallies and will likely seek to disperse unruly or unauthorized gatherings. Mass arrests may occur. Demonstrations are most likely to occur near prominent public squares, major transport hubs, and government buildings. Counterprotests by supporters of the Russian military, President Vladimir Putin, and the Russian state may also occur. Clashes between opposing protest groups are possible. Further protests in response to the mobilization order are likely in the coming days.

Context

The partial mobilization marks a significant escalation in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which Moscow refers to as a 'special military operation'. Russian authorities had previously indicated that a military mobilization was unnecessary; however, Russian and Russian proxy forces in Ukraine have experienced significant battlefield setbacks, including the withdrawal from Ukraine's Kharkiv Region amid a Ukrainian counteroffensive, which has likely prompted this shift in strategy.

The partial mobilization is unlikely to have an immediate impact on the conflict. Following mandatory training, reserve forces may be used in various capacities, including to defend the Russian border, relieve combat troops currently deployed in Ukraine, bolster defensive positions in Russian-occupied territory, or held in reserve ahead of a renewed offensive in late winter or early spring.

Putin also claimed that the mobilization was an effort to respond to Western support for Ukraine, stating that those nations were encouraging Ukraine to attack Russian territory and further alleging that unspecified NATO leaders had discussed the possibility of the use of nuclear weapons against Russia. Despite Putin's claims, and assurance that Russia would respond in kind to such an attack, the threat of nuclear escalation remains low.

Advice

Consider deferring nonessential travel to areas of Russia bordering Ukraine. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Monitor local media for updates on the situation and be prepared to change travel plans at short notice in response to developments. Avoid all protests and concentrations of security personnel.

Heed all official instructions. Carry proper documentation. Do not take photographs of security force facilities or units. Consider limiting movement in areas where troops are concentrating or undergoing military training. Avoid discussing military movements or the political situation with strangers. Remain polite and nonconfrontational if questioned by security forces.