South China Sea: Typhoon Noru tracking west-northwestward over the South China Sea as of early Sept. 26 /update 5

Event

Typhoon Noru (Karding in the Philippines) is tracking west-northwestward over the South China Sea as of early Sept. 26, following landfall near Burdeos, Quezon Province, Philippines, the previous day. As of 10:00 ICT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 1,080 km (671 miles) east of Da Nang, Vietnam.

Forecast models indicate that the storm system will strengthen as it crosses the South China Sea through Sept. 27 and make landfall over Da Nang, Vietnam, early Sept. 28. After landfall, Noru is likely to rapidly weaken as it tracks westward across central Vietnam, southern Laos, and eastern Thailand, dissipating over far northeastern Phetchabun Province in Thailand early Sept. 30. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming hours.

As of early Sept. 26, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) is maintaining the following warnings:

• Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal 1: northwestern Pampanga, central and western Pangasinan, western Tarlac, and Zambales provinces

Authorities have warned of light to moderate rain over Bataan, western Pangasinan, and Zambales provinces and the Lubang Islands. Scattered flooding and rain-induced landslides remain possible.

The China Meteorological Administration has issued a yellow (second lowest level on a four-tier scale) typhoon warning; heavy rainfall of 10-13 cm (4-5 inches) is forecast over the Sansha Islands.

The Vietnam National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF) has warned of heavy rain of 15-30 cm (6-12 inches) over Central Vietnam Sept. 27-28 and the North Central Coast Region Sept. 28-30. Strong winds are likely across central Vietnam from early Sept. 28. The NCHMF has issued a level 4 warning of natural disaster risk for Da Nang, Quang Nam, Quang Ngai, and Binh Dinh provinces and a level 3 warning of natural disaster risk for Quang Tri, Thua Thien Hue, Phu Yen, Kon Tum, and Gia Lai provinces.

The Cambodia Department of Meteorology has issued orange (middle level on a three-tier scale) heavy rainfall and strong wind warnings over the northern, northeastern, and southwestern parts of the country Sept. 28-30.

The Thai Meteorological Department has warned of heavy to very heavy rainfall over most of the country Sept. 28- Oct. 1. Floods and flash floods are possible. Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories in the coming days as the storm approaches.

Authorities in the Philippines preemptively evacuated 2,444 people from the Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, Ilocos Region, Mimaropa, and Western Visayas regions. As of early Sept. 26, 643 people remain displaced. Authorities have canceled classes and work across most of Luzon Sept. 26. Authorities have confirmed that five rescue personnel died in San Miguel Municipality in Bulacan Province early Sept. 26 due to a flash flood.

Officials closed the landslide-prone Kennon Road in Benguet Province before the storm. The Nueva Ecija-Aurora and Concepcion-Lapaz national roads in Aurora Province and the Ternate-Nasugbu national road in Cavite Province are also closed. Authorities have canceled at least 59 flights at Manila Ninoy Aquino International Airport (MNL) as of late Sept. 25; further flight cancellations are possible. The Paranaque Integrated Terminal Exchange (PITX) has canceled all services in Mindoro and Visayas as well as Davao City, Tiwi Municipality in Albay Province, and Infanta Municipality in Quezon Province. The Philippine National Railways (PNR) has canceled all services Sept. 26.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Cambodia Department of Meteorology
China Meteorological Administration
Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)
Thai Meteorological Department
Vietnam National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting