Ukraine: Rainfall forecast across most of the country through at least Sept. 29 /update 1

Event

Ukraine General Weather Forecast
Light-to-moderate levels of rainfall are forecast across many parts of Ukraine through at least Sept. 29. As of Sept. 22, the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center has forecast light rainfall across northern, central, and western parts of the country Sept. 22-23. Showers are expected to spread southward and eastward Sept. 24, with moderate rainfall forecast in eastern areas. Light rainfall is likely over northern, central, and western regions Sept. 25, and moderate rainfall in the west and light rainfall in the east Sept, 26. Temperatures are likely to be a few degrees cooler than the previous week and cold mornings could lead to frost in places. The first snow of the year was reported in the Carpathian mountains Sept. 18 and meteorologists have forecast that the first snow is likely in Kyiv around mid-October. Fog could also develop in some areas over the coming days, with dense fog forecast around Kiyv Sept. 22.

As of Sept. 22, the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center has issued yellow frost warnings (the lowest level on a three-tier scale) for northern and western regions early Sept. 23 and warned frosty mornings are also likely in central regions Sept. 24. Orange wildfire warnings have been issued for Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, as well as Crimea. Authorities may issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Conflict Area Forecast
Five-day forecast for major cities and logistical hubs in the conflict zone and bordering areas of Russia:

• Kharkiv: Largely dry conditions Sept. 22-23. Moderate rainfall forecast Sept. 24 and light rainfall Sept. 25-26. Maximum daytime temperatures 11-18 C (52-64 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 4-8 C (39-46 F).

• Luhansk: Largely dry conditions Sept. 22-23. Moderate rainfall forecast Sept. 24 and light rainfall Sept. 25-26. Maximum daytime temperatures 11-18 C (52-64 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 4-8 C (39-46 F).

• Donetsk: Largely dry conditions Sept. 22-23. Moderate rainfall forecast Sept. 24 and light rainfall Sept. 25-26. Maximum daytime temperatures 12-18 C (54-64 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 5-8 C (41-46 F).

• Mariupol: Largely dry conditions Sept. 22-23. Moderate rainfall forecast Sept. 24 and light rainfall Sept. 25-26. Maximum daytime temperatures 12-18 C (54-64 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 5-8 C (41-46 F).

• Kherson: Largely dry conditions Sept. 22-23 and Sept. 25. Light rainfall forecast Sept. 24 and Sept. 26. Maximum daytime temperatures 14-21 C (57-70 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 5-11 C (41-52 F).

• Zaporizhzhia: Largely dry conditions Sept. 22-23 and Sept. 25. Light rainfall forecast Sept. 24 and Sept. 26. Maximum daytime temperatures 14-18 C (57-64 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 4-9 C (39-48 F).

• Belgorod, Russia: Light rainfall forecast Sept. 22-26. Dry and cloudy Sept. 27-28. Maximum daytime temperatures 14-19 C (57-66 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 6-12 C (43-54 F).

• Valuyki, Russia: Largely dry conditions Sept. 22. Moderate rainfall forecast Sept. 23 and light rainfall Sept. 24-26. Dry and cloudy Sept. 27-28. Maximum daytime temperatures 14-21 C (57-70 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 6-11 C (43-52 F).

• Rostov, Russia: Light rainfall forecast Sept. 22 and moderate rainfall Sept. 23-24. Largely dry conditions Sept. 25 and light rainfall Sept. 26. Dry and cloudy Sept. 27-28. Maximum daytime temperatures 16-25 C (61-77 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 8-14 C (41-57 F).

Most rivers in Ukraine drain in a southerly direction into the Black and Azov seas. Heavy rainfall in the north is likely to result in water level rises in the rivers in the southern part of the country even if no significant rain falls in the area.

As of Sept. 22, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring has issued orange rainfall, thunderstorm, and strong wind warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale) over parts of Rostov Oblast Sept. 22. The storms could produce heavy downpours, strong wind gusts, and thunderstorm activity in affected areas.

Transport
Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Disruptive weather may cause some delays and cancellations at airports across the country. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, impacting freight and passenger maritime traffic. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight cancellations are possible in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track blockages.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after conditions have improved - it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or officials clear debris. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.

Context

With the conflict in Ukraine ongoing into the autumn, the changing weather conditions are likely to have an increasing impact on military operations in the region, especially as winter approaches. Increased precipitation in the autumn months could cause flooding, affecting key rivers in the conflict region, inundating roads, and complicating travel over unpaved routes, which would inhibit the ability of both sides to sustain operations. When the coldest months of December-February arrive, temperatures are likely to drop well below freezing in most areas, which could temporarily facilitate ground movement as rivers freeze over and muddy conditions abate. However, it is likely that the severe winter typically experienced in the region will prompt severe logistical impediments, and wear and tear on vehicles and military equipment, which is likely to lead to a significant drop in the tempo of military operations.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where severe weather has occurred. Charge battery-powered devices in case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center
Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring