Caribbean Sea: Tropical Depression Thirteen tracking westward off the northern coast of South America late Oct. 6 /update 1

Event

Tropical Depression Thirteen is tracking westward in the southern Caribbean Sea late Oct. 6 just off the northern coast of South America. As of 23:00 AST, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 100 km (60 miles) west-southwest of Curacao.

Forecast models indicate the system will make landfall over the Paraguana Peninsula in northwestern Venezuela late Oct. 6. The system is then likely to strengthen into a tropical storm as it continues to track west-northwestward and makes landfall over the Guajira Peninsula in northeastern Colombia early Oct. 7 before strengthening further into a Category 1 hurricane by late Oct. 8 as it tracks generally westward over the central Caribbean Sea Oct. 7-9. Another landfall as a Category 1 hurricane is forecast over the central-eastern Nicaraguan coast early Oct. 9. Following landfall, the system is likely to weaken into a tropical storm as it tracks west-northwestward over northern Nicaragua, central Honduras, and central Guatemala through Oct. 10, before dissipating over central Guatemala. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of 23:00 AST Oct. 6, authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:

• Hurricane Watch: San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina islands in Colombia

• Tropical Storm Warning: the coast of Colombia from Riohacha eastward to the Colombia-Venezuela border

Officials could issue new warnings and/or watches in response to the developing system in the coming hours.

Forecast models predict rainfall accumulations through early Oct. 10 of 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches) over northern coastal Venezuela, Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, the Guajira Peninsula in northeastern Colombia, and central Nicaragua. Accumulations of 15-30 cm (6-12 inches) are forecast over the Colombian islands of San Andres and Providencia, 15-25 cm (6-10 inches) over eastern Nicaragua, and 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) over southwestern Costa Rica and southwestern Panama. The heavy rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods in affected areas. There is also a risk of life-threatening landslides across portions of Central America Oct. 8-9.

Swells generated by the disturbance will affect Aruba, Bonaire, Curacao, parts of northwestern Venezuela, and the Guajira Peninsula of Colombia through Oct. 7 and could spread to Jamaica, Providencia, and San Andres Oct. 8 as well as the east coast of Central America Oct. 9. The swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Storm surge, accompanied by large and damaging waves, could raise water levels by 0.3-0.9 meters (1-3 feet) above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of San Andres, Providencia, and Santa Catalina islands in Colombia.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast typhoon or tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center
Belize National Meteorological Service
Colombia Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (IDEAM)
El Salvador National Service for Territorial Studies
Guatemala National Institute of Seismology, Volcanology, Meteorology and Hydrology (INSIVUMEH)
Honduras Center for Atmospheric, Oceanographic and Seismic Studies (CENAOS)
Nicaragua Directorate General of Meteorology