Mozambique: Militant threat likely to remain elevated in Cabo Delgado, Nampula, and Niassa provinces through mid-November. /update 1

Event

The militant threat affecting Mozambique's northern provinces of Cabo Delgado, Nampula, and Niassa, will likely remain elevated through at least mid-November. Attacks by the Ahlu Sunnah Wa-Jamo (ASWJ) Islamist militant group on military and civilian targets, including mining sites, have continued throughout August and September and are likely to persist despite heightened security deployment in affected areas.

Authorities will almost certainly maintain an increased security posture in the affected areas of Cabo Delgado and may erect roadblocks or restrict access on some roads. Security-related operations could result in localized ground transport disruptions. Increased vehicle checks are also likely on roads leading to and from larger urban centers. Further militant attacks remain possible.

Context

Mozambique's north, particularly Cabo Delgado Province, has been subject to an Islamist insurgency since October 2017. Attacks have since then spread to neighboring Nampula and Niassa provinces. Attacks are linked to militants from ASWJ, also known as Ansar al-Sunna, which has, in turn, pledged allegiance to the Islamic State (IS). The group typically attacks security forces and remote towns through road ambushes and armed assaults. ASWJ appears to identify with an international Islamist agenda and could aspire to conduct targeted attacks and kidnappings against foreign nationals.

This has raised concerns that the violence could threaten economically important oil and gas investments in Cabo Delgado as companies seek to increase their investments in the nascent sector.

Following the deployment of the SAMIM force in July 2021, combined local and international forces have retaken key urban areas occupied by the insurgents, pushing them further inland and into more rural areas. Nonetheless, insecurity persists; the militants operate in relatively autonomous cells, and their self-reliance contributes to the difficulty the government has had in tracking down and identifying their support networks. Authorities extended the deployment of SANIM military personnel as of Aug. 18; officials did not announce when the SAMIM mandate would end.

As of October 2022, the insurgency in Cabo Delgado has killed around 5,900 people and displaced 950,000 more since its inception in 2017.

In response to the insurgency, various foreign governments are maintaining travel advisories for the provinces:

• The UK government advises against all travel to Mueda, Nangade, Palma, Mocimboa da Praia, Muidumbe, Meluco, Macomia, Quissanga, and Ibo districts in Cabo Delgado Province, including the islands off the coast. The government also advises against nonessential travel to Ancuabe, Chiure and Metuge districts, as well as Palma town and the Afungi Peninsula in Cabo Delgado, and against nonessential travel to Memba and Erati districts in Nampula province.

• The US government advises against all travel to Ancuabe, Chuire, Ibo, Macomia, Meluco, Metuge, Mocimboa da Praia, Mueda, Muidumbe, Nangade, Palma, and Quissanga districts, and instructs travelers to reconsider travel to Pemba in Cabo Delgado Province.

• The French government advises against all travel to the entire province of Cabo Delgado, including its capital Pemba, as well as the eastern third of Niassa province and along the border with Tanzania into Malawi. Traveling to Ibo and Quirimbas islands are also discouraged. Following recent attacks in Nampula Province, French authorities have advised against all travel to the districts of Mecurubi, Errati, Memba, Nacaroa, Muecate (South), Monapo (North), Meconta (North), Nampula (North), and Nacala (excluding Nacala city) until further notice, and against using the roads north of the main Nampula-Nacala axis. Authorities further advise against nonessential travel to Nampula's districts of Nacala (South), Monapo (South), Mossuril, Muecate (North), Nampula (South), Ribaue and Malima (including the towns of Nampula and Nacala). Nonessential travel to the western part of Niassa Province are also advised against.

Advice

Consider deferring nonessential travel to Cabo Delgado until government forces manage to stabilize the security landscape. Proceed with extreme caution when traveling in the Niassa and Nampula provinces. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Liaise with trusted security partners for further information. Travel in convoy after a full security review of the route and avoid all travel after dark. Review and update contingency plans. Carry personal identification documents. Heed all security personnel instructions.