Thailand: Further adverse weather forecast across northern, central, and southern regions through at least Oct. 14 /update 1

Event

Further adverse weather is forecast across parts of northern, central, and southern Thailand through at least Oct. 14, as disruptions due to flooding continue across many parts of the country as of Oct. 10. The Thai Meteorological Department has issued a weather warning for variable weather in northern regions and heavy rains in the south Oct. 10-14. A high pressure system over northern regions is expected to bring thunderstorms and isolated strong wind gusts and heavy downpours to the regions Oct. 10-11. The monsoon trough currently located over south-central regions is expected to bring heavy to very heavy rainfall to southern and south-central parts of the country in the coming days. Temperatures are also expected to drop across northern, central, and eastern parts of Thailand from Oct. 11 and rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Thailand through at least Oct. 14. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Heavy rainfall associated with the remnants of Typhoon Noru has been ongoing across much of the country since late September, causing river levels and dams to reach dangerously high levels. Flooding continues to affect many areas nationwide as of Oct. 10, particularly in northeastern and central regions. Authorities have reported that more than 200,000 households across 54 provinces have been affected by flooding in recent days. Nearly 20,000 people in Ubon Ratchathani Province have been moved into 85 emergency shelters after the Moon River broke its banks and the resultant flooding affected more than 1,000 villages. Authorities have declared parts of Muang, Pak Kret, and Bang Yai districts in Nonthaburi Province as disaster areas due to ongoing flooding.

Many major dams across the country have reached capacity and authorities are being forced to release water into rivers, exacerbating the rising levels due to heavy rainfall. Authorities have warned residents in Bangkok and other provinces along the Chao Phraya River to take precautions due to the risk of further flooding due to rising river levels. A section of the road between Ayutthaya and Sena District in Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya Province was flooded Oct. 10, causing severe traffic disruptions in the region. Residents in Rangsit in Pathum Thani Province were advised to move their belongings to higher ground Oct. 8 as the Pasak Jolasid dam in Lop Buri is reaching capacity. In the far north, heavy rainfall caused the Mae Sai river to overflow in Chiang Rai Province early Oct. 8. The flooding inundated homes, businesses, and roads in the region.

Hazardous Conditions
Further sustained heavy rainfall could trigger additional flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where the soil has become saturated by heavy rainfall.

Authorities could issue mandatory evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where significant flooding or landslides impact utility networks.

Transport
Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters.

Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancellations at airports across the affected region. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.

Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where flooding has been forecast. Do not drive on flooded roads. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Thai Meteorological Department