Ukraine: Generally stable weather conditions are forecast across most of the country through at least Nov. 3 /update 6

Event

Ukraine General Weather Forecast
Largely dry and stable conditions are forecast to prevail across much of Ukraine through at least Nov. 3. Cloudy skies with some periods of sunshine are likely to be accompanied by above-average temperatures for the time of year. Daytime temperatures of 6.5-17 C (44-63 F) are forecast across much of the country over the coming days, with temperatures decreasing from Oct. 31. Some scattered showers are forecast through Oct. 30. Fog and frost are possible in the mornings in some areas; however, these conditions will unlikely linger and improve quickly through the day.

Conflict Area Forecast
Seven-day forecast for major cities and logistical hubs in the conflict zone and bordering areas of Russia:

• Kharkiv: Light rainfall forecast in the morning of Oct. 30. Largely dry and cloudy the rest of the days through Nov. 3. Maximum daytime temperatures 6.5-14 C (44-57 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures of 0-10.5 C (32-51 F).

• Luhansk: Showers are forecast for the morning of Oct. 28 and Oct. 30. Largely dry and cloudy the rest of the days through Nov. 3. Maximum daytime temperatures of 8-14 C (46-57 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures of 2-9 C (35-48 F).

• Donetsk: Light rain forecast the morning of Oct. 28 and Oct. 30. Largely dry and cloudy through Nov. 3. Maximum daytime temperatures 9-13 C (48-55 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures of 0-8 C (32-46 F).

• Mariupol: Light rainfall forecast in the morning of Oct. 30. Largely dry and cloudy through Nov. 3. Maximum daytime temperatures 11-14 C (52-57 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures of 3-9 C (37-49 F).

• Kherson: Showers forecast Oct. 30. Mostly sunny conditions likely Oct. 31-Nov. 1. Largely dry and cloudy the rest of the days through Nov. 3. Maximum daytime temperatures 14-17 C (57-62 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures of 3-10 C (37-50 F).

• Zaporizhzhia: Showers forecast Oct. 30. Mostly sunny conditions likely Nov. 1. Largely dry and cloudy the rest of the days through Nov. 3. Maximum daytime temperatures 12-15 C (53-59 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures of 2-10 C (36-49 F).

• Belgorod, Russia: Light rain forecast Oct. 27-28 and Oct. 30. Largely dry and cloudy the rest of the days through Nov. 3. Maximum daytime temperatures 9-12 C (48-54 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures of 0-8 C (32-46 F).

• Valuyki, Russia: Light rain forecast Oct. 27 and Oct. 30. Largely dry and cloudy the rest of the days through Nov. 3. Maximum daytime temperatures 10-13 C (50-55 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures of -1-7 C (30-45 F).

• Rostov, Russia: Light rain forecast Oct. 27, Oct. 30, and Nov. 2. Largely dry and cloudy the rest of the days through Nov. 3. Maximum daytime temperatures 9-14 C (48-57 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures of 3-8 C (37-46 F).

Most rivers in Ukraine drain in a southerly direction into the Black and Azov seas. Heavy rainfall in the north is likely to result in water level rises in the rivers in the southern part of the country even if no significant rain falls in the area.

As of Oct. 27, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring has issued orange heavy rain, thunderstorm, hail, and strong wind warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale) across Krasnodar Krai. Yellow fog warnings are in place across the Rostov Region. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Transport
If significant rainfall occurs, floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, impacting maritime freight traffic. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight cancellations are possible in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track blockages.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after conditions have improved - it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or officials clear debris. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.

Context

With the conflict in Ukraine ongoing into the autumn, the changing weather conditions are likely to have an increasing impact on military operations in the region, especially as winter approaches. Increased precipitation in the autumn months could cause flooding, affecting key rivers in the conflict region, inundating roads, and complicating travel over unpaved routes, which would inhibit the ability of both sides to sustain operations. When the coldest months of December-February arrive, temperatures are likely to drop well below freezing in most areas, which could temporarily facilitate ground movement as rivers freeze over and muddy conditions abate. However, it is likely that the severe winter typically experienced in the region will prompt severe logistical impediments, and wear and tear on vehicles and military equipment, which is likely to lead to a significant drop in the tempo of military operations.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where severe weather is forecast. Charge battery-powered devices in case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center
Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring