Ukraine: Largely dry conditions forecast across much of the country through Oct. 20 /update 4

Event

Ukraine General Weather Forecast
Largely dry conditions are forecast to prevail across much of Ukraine through at least Oct. 20. Little precipitation is forecast Oct. 13-14, with temperatures slightly cooler than during previous days. Temperatures are expected to rise slightly Oct. 15-16 and some light rainfall is possible in far western and northwestern regions. Dry conditions are expected to prevail across much of the country Oct. 17-18 before weather fronts bring rain to northwestern regions and snow and sleet to the Carpathian Mountains Oct. 19-20. Temperatures are also expected to start to drop across much of the country from Oct. 20. Fog and frost are possible in the mornings and nights in some areas; however, these conditions will unlikely linger and improve quickly.

Conflict Area Forecast
Seven-day forecast for major cities and logistical hubs in the conflict zone and bordering areas of Russia:

• Kharkiv: Showers forecast Oct. 13. Largely dry and partly cloudy Oct. 14-19. Maximum daytime temperatures 11-16 C (52-61 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 1-8 C (34-46 F).

• Luhansk: Largely dry and partly cloudy Oct. 13-19. Maximum daytime temperatures 12-17 C (54-63 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 0-7 C (32-45 F).

• Donetsk: Largely dry and partly cloudy Oct. 13-19. Maximum daytime temperatures 12-17 C (54-63 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 1-6 C (34-43 F).

• Mariupol: Largely dry and partly cloudy conditions Oct. 13-19, with some periods of sunshine most likely Oct. 15 and 18. Maximum daytime temperatures 14-18 C (57-64 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 5-8 C (41-46 F).

• Kherson: Largely dry and cloudy conditions Oct. 13 and 18, dry and mostly sunny conditions Oct. 14-17. Maximum daytime temperatures 14-19 C (57-66 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 3-6 C (37-43 F).

• Zaporizhzhia: Largely dry and partly cloudy conditions Oct. 13-19, with periods of sunshine likely Oct. 17-18. Maximum daytime temperatures 13-18 C (55-64 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 3-7 C (37-45F).

• Belgorod, Russia: Light rainfall forecast Oct. 13. Largely dry and partly cloudy Oct. 14-18. Moderate rainfall forecast Oct. 19. Maximum daytime temperatures 10-15 C (50-59 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 0-7 C (32-45 F).

• Valuyki, Russia: Light rainfall forecast Oct. 13-14. Largely dry and partly cloudy Oct. 15-18. Moderate rainfall forecast Oct. 19. Maximum daytime temperatures 11-15 C (52-59 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 0-7 C (32-45 F).

• Rostov, Russia: Largely dry and partly cloudy conditions Oct. 13-19. Maximum daytime temperatures 13-16 C (43-61 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 3-8 C (37-46 F).

Most rivers in Ukraine drain in a southerly direction into the Black and Azov seas. Heavy rainfall in the north is likely to result in water level rises in the rivers in the southern part of the country even if no significant rain falls in the area.

As of Oct. 13, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring has issued yellow fog warnings (the lowest level on a three-tier scale) for several regions neighboring Ukraine, including Krasnodar Krai, Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, and Voronezh regions. Yellow forest fire warnings have been issued for Rostov Region and yellow wind warnings for Krasnodar Krai. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Transport
If significant rainfall occurs, floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, impacting maritime freight traffic. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight cancellations are possible in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track blockages.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after conditions have improved - it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or officials clear debris. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.

Context

With the conflict in Ukraine ongoing into the autumn, the changing weather conditions are likely to have an increasing impact on military operations in the region, especially as winter approaches. Increased precipitation in the autumn months could cause flooding, affecting key rivers in the conflict region, inundating roads, and complicating travel over unpaved routes, which would inhibit the ability of both sides to sustain operations. When the coldest months of December-February arrive, temperatures are likely to drop well below freezing in most areas, which could temporarily facilitate ground movement as rivers freeze over and muddy conditions abate. However, it is likely that the severe winter typically experienced in the region will prompt severe logistical impediments, and wear and tear on vehicles and military equipment, which is likely to lead to a significant drop in the tempo of military operations.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where severe weather is forecast. Charge battery-powered devices in case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center
Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring