Afghanistan: Adverse weather forecast across northern and central regions through at least Nov. 5 /update 1

Event

Adverse weather is forecast across parts of northern and central Afghanistan through at least Nov. 5. As of Nov. 3, the Afghanistan Meteorological Department has issued a weather warning for heavy rainfall, snow, and possible flooding across Heart, Ghor, Badghis, Faryab, Sar-e-Pol, Jowzjan, Balkh, Samangan, Kunduz, Baghlan, Takhar, Badakhshan, Panjshir, Parwan, Bamyan, Wardak, and Daykundi provinces. Rainfall totals of 1-4 cm (0.8-1.6 inches) are expected across parts of the affected area and snowfall accumulations of 5-15 cm (2-5.9 inches) are possible predominatly over higher ground. The heaviest precipitation is forecast in parts of northern Badakhshan, western and northern Sar-e-Pol, southwestern Jawzjan, southern Faryab, southern Badghis, and eastern Herat provinces. Officials could update and possibly extend the coverage of weather alerts over the coming days.

Hazardous Conditions
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed or a lack of stormwater drainage systems. Sites downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where the soil has become saturated by heavy rainfall. Power outages could occur throughout the affected area.

Due to the arid nature of the region and poor stormwater management, even minor rainfall accumulations could quickly result in episodes of flash flooding. Flooding is possible in streams and dry riverbeds.

Precipitation could fall as snow in higher elevations over the coming days. Wind gusts could cause blowing and drifting snow; decreased visibility is likely in mountainous areas. Avalanches are possible in mountainous areas where the snowpack has become unstable due to heavy snowfall.

Transport
The severe weather will likely contribute to transport disruptions throughout the region. Traffic and commercial trucking delays might occur along regional highways. Flooding downpours could inundate some low-lying roads in areas with poor drainage. Strong winds might also pose a hazard to high-profile vehicles. Hazardous weather conditions might cause flight delays and cancellations at regional airports.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after conditions have improved; it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or debris is cleared. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather-related updates and advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business arrangements before traveling in the affected areas. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where severe weather is forecast; plan for possible supply chain disruptions throughout the affected areas. Stay away from elevated streams, creeks, and other watercourses that are prone to flash flooding. Do not attempt to navigate flooded roadways. Exercise caution in elevated terrain due to the threat of landslides, as well as mountainous regions where avalanches pose a threat. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Afghanistan Meteorological Department