Ukraine: Weather conditions forecast to become less stable across most of the country through at least Nov. 17 /update 8

Event

Ukraine General Weather Forecast
Weather conditions are forecast to become increasingly unstable across much of Ukraine through at least Nov. 17. Relatively mild temperatures are forecast Nov. 10-13, with small fluctuations in temperature as well as bursts of light-to-moderate rainfall and gusty winds. Light rainfall is forecast in western regions Nov. 10 before spreading across much of the country Nov. 11. A drier day is forecast Nov. 12; however, rains will return to northwestern, central, and eastern regions Nov. 13. A significant drop in temperature is likely across much of the country Nov. 14-16, with temperatures reaching below 0 C (32 F) at night in most regions. The cooler temperatures will likely be accompanied by showers in many areas, as well as possible snowfall and frost in western regions. Fog will likely also continue to affect much of Ukraine, reducing visibility to around 200-500 meters (656-1,640 feet) in affected areas. The Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center has issued yellow fog warnings (the lowest level on a three-tier scale) across much of the country in recent days.

Conflict Area Forecast
Seven-day forecast for major cities and logistical hubs in the conflict zone and bordering areas of Russia:

• Kharkiv: Largely cloudy and dry Nov. 10-16. Maximum daytime temperatures 1-11 C (34-52 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -3-8 C (27-46 F).

• Luhansk: Largely cloudy and dry Nov. 10-16. Maximum daytime temperatures 3-12 C (37-54 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -3-7 C (27-45 F).

• Donetsk: Largely cloudy and dry Nov. 10-16. Maximum daytime temperatures 2-10 C (36-50 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -3-5 C (27-41 F).

• Mariupol: Largely cloudy and dry Nov. 10-16. Maximum daytime temperatures 4-12 C (39-54 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -1-6 C (30-43 F).

• Kherson: Generally clear skies Nov. 10 and largely cloudy and dry Nov. 11-16. Maximum daytime temperatures 8-13 C (46-55 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 1-4 C (34-39 F).

• Zaporizhzhia: Largely cloudy and dry Nov. 10-16. Maximum daytime temperatures 5-12 C (41-54 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -1-5 C (30-41 F).

• Belgorod, Russia: Largely dry and partly cloudy Nov. 10-15. Wintry showers forecast Nov. 16. Maximum daytime temperatures -1-10 C (30-50 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -4-7 C (25-45 F).

• Valuyki, Russia: Largely dry and partly cloudy Nov. 10-15. Wintry showers forecast Nov. 16. Maximum daytime temperatures 0-11 C (32-52 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -4-7 C (25-45 F).

• Rostov, Russia: Largely dry and partly cloudy Nov. 10-16. Maximum daytime temperatures 2-10 C (36-50 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -1-6 C (30-43 F).

Most rivers in Ukraine drain in a southerly direction into the Black and Azov seas. Heavy rainfall in the north is likely to result in water level rises in the rivers in the southern part of the country even if no significant rain falls in the area.

As of Nov. 10, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring has issued yellow fog warnings (the lowest level on a three-tier scale) across the Crimea, Krasnodar Krai, Rostov, Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, and Voronezh regions. Orange and yellow forest fire danger warnings are also in place for Crimea. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Transport
If significant rainfall occurs, floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, impacting maritime freight traffic. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight cancellations are possible in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track blockages.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding, could persist well after conditions have improved - it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or officials clear debris. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.

Context

Changing weather conditions during the fall season are likely to have an increasing impact on military operations in the region, especially as winter approaches. Increased precipitation in the coming months could cause flooding, affecting key rivers in the conflict region, inundating roads, and complicating travel over unpaved routes, which would inhibit the ability of both sides to sustain operations. This is often referred to by the Russian term 'Rasputitsa', which translates as 'season of bad roads' and refers to the period where both fall and spring rains (as well as the thaw of winter snow in the spring) create muddy conditions and make travel difficult on unpaved roads or off-road. When the coldest months of December-February arrive, temperatures are likely to drop well below freezing in most areas, which could temporarily facilitate ground movement as rivers freeze over and muddy conditions abate. However, it is likely that the severe winter typically experienced in the region will prompt severe logistical impediments, and wear and tear on vehicles and military equipment, which is likely to lead to a significant drop in the tempo of military operations.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where severe weather is forecast. Charge battery-powered devices in case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center
Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring