Ukraine: Cold and largely dry conditions expected across much of the country through at least Dec. 8 /update 11

Event

Ukraine General Weather Forecast
Cold and largely dry conditions are forecast across much of Ukraine through at least Dec. 8. Temperatures will struggle to rise much above freezing during the day in many areas and will be well below freezing at night. Wind chill from easterly gusty winds will make conditions feel colder. Light snowfall is forecast in western regions Dec. 1-2, as well as possible sleet in the southwest Dec. 2. Further wintry precipitation, including rain, sleet, and light snow, is expected in southern regions Dec. 4-5 and light rainfall is possible in far western regions Dec. 5. The Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center has warned that due to the dropping temperatures ice may begin to form in rivers across northern, central, and eastern Ukraine, which could cause fluctuations in river levels due to ice jams. Frost, fog, and ice could also pose hazards to travel amid cold temperatures.

Conflict Area Forecast
Seven-day forecast for major cities and logistical hubs in the conflict zone and bordering areas of Russia:

• Kharkiv: Largely cloudy without significant precipitation Dec. 1-7. Maximum daytime temperatures -4 to 1 C (25 to 34 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -11 to -3 C (12 to 27 F).

• Luhansk: Partly cloudy with little precipitation Dec, 1-7. Maximum daytime temperatures -10 to 1 C (14 to 34 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -5 to 1 C (23 to 34 F).

• Donetsk: Partly cloudy with little precipitation Dec, 1-7. Maximum daytime temperatures -9 to 1 C (16 to 34 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -6 to 0 C (21 to 32 F).

• Mariupol: Partly cloudy with little precipitation Dec, 1-7. Maximum daytime temperatures -6 to 3 C (21 to 37 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -4 to 1 C (25 to 34 F).

• Kherson: Partly cloudy without significant precipitation Dec. 1-3 and 6-7. Wintry precipitation forecast Dec. 4-5. Maximum daytime temperatures -2 to 4 C (28 to 39 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -5 to 3 C (23 to 37 F).

• Zaporizhzhia: Partly cloudy without significant precipitation Dec. 1-3 and 6-7. Wintry precipitation forecast Dec. 4-5. Maximum daytime temperatures -3 to 2 C (27 to 36 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -8 to 2 C (18 to 36 F).

• Belgorod, Russia: Largely cloudy with little precipitation Dec. 1-7. Maximum daytime temperatures -4 to -1 C (25 to 30 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -9 to -5 C (16 to 23 F).

• Valuyki, Russia: Partly cloudy with little precipitation Dec. 1-7. Maximum daytime temperatures -4 to -1 C (25 to 30 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -9 to -5 C (16 to 23 F).

• Rostov, Russia: Largely dry and partly cloudy Dec. 1-7. Maximum daytime temperatures -2 to 1 C (28 to 34 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -8 to -4 C (18 to 25 F).

Most rivers in Ukraine drain in a southerly direction into the Black and Azov seas. Heavy rainfall in the north is likely to result in water level rises in the rivers in the southern part of the country, even if no significant rain falls in the area.

As of Dec. 1, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring has issued an orange warning (the middle level on a three-tier scale) for water levels dropping to dangerous levels near the mouth of the Don River near Azov in Rostov Oblast. Yellow strong wind warnings have also been issued for Krasnodar Kray, Rostov Oblast, and parts of Crimea. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Transport
The winter weather will likely cause ground and air transport disruptions across parts of Ukraine over the coming weeks. Traffic and commercial trucking delays are possible along regional highways. Difficult and potentially dangerous driving conditions are also likely on secondary and rural roadways in the affected states as maintenance crews prioritize clearing major routes. Authorities could close stretches of highway if driving conditions become too hazardous. Gusty winds may threaten to topple high-profile vehicles. Flight delays and cancellations are likely due to ground stops and deicing operations at airports.

Context

The arrival of winter is likely to have an increasing impact on military operations in the region. Temperatures are likely to drop well below freezing in most areas over the coming months, which could temporarily facilitate ground movement as rivers freeze over and muddy conditions created by fall rains begin to abate. However, it is likely that the severe winter typically experienced in the region will prompt severe logistical impediments, and wear and tear on vehicles and military equipment, which is likely to lead to a significant drop in the tempo of military operations.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where severe weather is forecast. Charge battery-powered devices in case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center
Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring