Ukraine: Wintry precipitation and fluctuating temperatures forecast across much of the country through at least Dec. 22 /update 13

Event

Ukraine General Weather Forecast
Wintry precipitation is forecast across much of Ukraine through at least Dec. 18 before a sharp drop in temperatures Dec. 19-21. Snow and sleet are expected in northern and far western regions Dec. 15, with rain and sleet more likely in southern regions. Rain and sleet are forecast in western, northern, and central regions Dec. 16-17 and in eastern regions Dec. 17. Snow is expected in northern and central regions Dec. 18 and rainfall in southern and eastern regions, before largely dry conditions prevail across much of the country from Dec. 19. Temperatures are expected to fluctuate quite significantly over the coming days. Milder conditions than in recent days are forecast across central, eastern, and southern Ukraine Dec. 16-17 before a sharp drop in temperatures across western, northern, and central regions Dec. 18 and eastern and southern regions Dec. 19. Daytime temperatures will likely be below 0 C (32 F) across most of Ukraine Dec. 19-21.

Persistent precipitation in recent days has led to river levels rising in parts of Ukraine, particularly in northern and western river basins. Yellow hydrological warnings (level 1 on a four-tier scale) have been issued for the Pripyat and Western Bug river basins as of Dec. 15 due to a risk of possible overflow into floodplains. Orange and yellow avalanche warnings (levels 3 and 2 on a five tier-scale) have been issued for parts of the Carpathian mountains Dec. 15-16. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days. Fog, frost, and ice accumulations are possible due to the forecast precipitation and cold temperatures. Hazardous travel conditions are likely due to reduced visibility and icy roads.

Conflict Area Forecast
Seven-day forecast for major cities and logistical hubs in the conflict zone and bordering areas of Russia:

• Kharkiv: Cloudy with little precipitation Dec. 15. Sleet and rain forecast Dec. 16-17 and light-to-moderate rainfall Dec. 18. Largely clear with little precipitation Dec. 19-21. Maximum daytime temperatures -3-8 C (27-46 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -7-6 C (19-43 F).

• Luhansk: Cloudy with little precipitation Dec. 15. Sleet and rain forecast Dec. 16-17 and light-to-moderate rainfall Dec. 18. Largely clear with little precipitation Dec. 19-21. Maximum daytime temperatures -7-9 C (19-45 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -6-3 C (21-37 F).

• Donetsk: Cloudy with little precipitation Dec. 15. Sleet and rain forecast Dec. 16-17 and light-to-moderate rainfall Dec. 18. Largely clear with little precipitation Dec. 19-21. Maximum daytime temperatures -7-11 C (19-52 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -5-5 C (23-41 F).

• Mariupol: Cloudy with little precipitation Dec. 15. Sleet and rain forecast Dec. 16-17 and light-to-moderate rainfall Dec. 18. Largely clear with little precipitation Dec. 19-21. Maximum daytime temperatures -4-8 C (25-46 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -2-5 C (28-41 F).

• Kherson: Rain and sleet forecast Dec. 15-16. Cloudy with little precipitation Dec. 17 and light-to-moderate rainfall Dec. 18. Largely clear with little precipitation Dec. 19-21. Maximum daytime temperatures -3-14 C (27-57 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -6-7 C (21-44 F).

• Zaporizhzhia: Rain and sleet forecast Dec. 15-17 and light-to-moderate rainfall Dec. 18. Largely clear with little precipitation Dec. 19-21. Maximum daytime temperatures -3-11 C (27-52 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -5-7 C (23-45 F).

• Belgorod, Russia: Cloudy with mixed light wintry precipitation Dec. 15-18. Partly cloudy and dry Dec. 19-21. Maximum daytime temperatures -5-6 C (23-43 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -10-0 C (14-32 F).

• Valuyki, Russia: Cloudy with mixed light wintry precipitation Dec. 15-18. Partly cloudy and dry Dec. 19-21. Maximum daytime temperatures -2-8 C (28-46 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -8-5 C (18-41 F).

• Rostov, Russia: Cloudy with mixed light wintry precipitation Dec. 15-19. Partly cloudy and dry Dec. 20-21. Maximum daytime temperatures -1-10 C (30-50 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -7-5 C (19-37 F).

Most rivers in Ukraine drain in a southerly direction into the Black and Azov seas. Heavy rainfall in the north is likely to result in water level rises in the rivers in the southern part of the country, even if no significant rain falls in the area.

As of Dec. 15, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring has issued orange heavy rainfall warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale) for Crimea and yellow heavy rainfall warnings for Krasnodar Krai. Yellow snow and ice warnings have been issued for Bryansk Oblast, yellow fog warnings for Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, and Rostov oblasts and parts of Crimea, and yellow strong wind warnings in Belgorod and Bryansk oblast and parts of Crimea. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Transport
The winter weather will likely cause ground and air transport disruptions across parts of Ukraine over the coming weeks. Traffic and commercial trucking delays are possible along regional highways. Difficult and potentially dangerous driving conditions are also likely on secondary and rural roadways in the affected states as maintenance crews prioritize clearing major routes. Authorities could close stretches of highway if driving conditions become too hazardous. Gusty winds may threaten to topple high-profile vehicles. Flight delays and cancellations are likely due to ground stops and deicing operations at airports.

Context

The arrival of winter is likely to have an increasing impact on military operations in the region. Temperatures are likely to drop well below freezing in most areas over the coming months, which could temporarily facilitate ground movement as rivers freeze over and muddy conditions created by fall rains begin to abate. However, it is likely that the severe winter typically experienced in the region will prompt severe logistical impediments, and wear and tear on vehicles and military equipment, which is likely to lead to a significant drop in the tempo of military operations.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where severe weather is forecast. Charge battery-powered devices in case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center
Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring