Ukraine: Wintry precipitation is forecast across much of the country through at least Dec. 15 /update 12

Event

Ukraine General Weather Forecast
Wintry precipitation is forecast across much of Ukraine through at least Dec. 15. Temperatures will also rise somewhat following the extreme cold of recent days. A mixture of snow, rain, and sleet is forecast in central, eastern, and southern regions Dec. 8 and predominantly rainfall and sleet are expected across Ukraine Dec. 9-11. Snowfall is expected to return to western regions and rainfall is likely across much of the rest of the country Dec. 12-13, with some sleet or light snow possible in central regions Dec. 13. Temperatures are likely to struggle to reach much above 0 C (32 F) across most of the country through Dec. 9, before temperatures begin to rise a few degrees from Dec. 10. The extreme cold is likely to return to western regions from Dec. 12 and central regions from Dec. 13. The Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center has issued yellow fog warnings (the lowest level on a three-tier scale) across all of Ukraine with the exception of eastern regions Dec. 8-9. The fog is likely to reduce visibility to around 200-500 meters (656-1,640 feet) in affected areas. Green hydrological warnings (the lowest level on a five-tier scale) for possible ice formations on rivers remain in place across central, eastern, and northern Ukraine as of Dec. 8 and yellow and green avalanche warnings (levels 1 and 2 on a five tier-scale) have been issued for parts of the Carpathian mountains. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days. Hazardous travel conditions are likely due to reduced visibility and icy roads.

Conflict Area Forecast
Seven-day forecast for major cities and logistical hubs in the conflict zone and bordering areas of Russia:

• Kharkiv: Snow turning to rain and sleet Dec. 8. Further rain and sleet forecast Dec. 9-10 and light-to-moderate rainfall Dec. 11-13. Mixed wintry precipitation Dec. 14. Maximum daytime temperatures -1-8 C (30-46 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -5-6 C (23-43 F).

• Luhansk: Snowfall forecast Dec. 8 and rain and sleet Dec. 9-10. Light-to-moderate rainfall Dec. 11-13 and mixed wintry precipitation Dec. 14. Maximum daytime temperatures -1-7 C (30-45 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -5-4 C (23-39 F).

• Donetsk: Snow turning to rain and sleet Dec. 8. Further rain and sleet forecast Dec. 9-10 and light-to-moderate rainfall Dec. 11-13. Mixed wintry precipitation Dec. 14. Maximum daytime temperatures 0-9 C (32-48 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -2-7 C (28-45 F).

• Mariupol: Snow turning to rain and sleet Dec. 8. Further rain and sleet forecast Dec. 9-10 and light-to-moderate rainfall Dec. 11-14. Maximum daytime temperatures 0-6 C (32-43 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -2-4 C (28-39 F).

• Kherson: Light-to-moderate rainfall forecast Dec. 8-14. Maximum daytime temperatures 4-12 C (39-54 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 2-9 C (36-48 F).

• Zaporizhzhia: Rain and sleet forecast Dec. 8 and light-to-moderate rainfall Dec. 9-13. Mixed wintry precipitation Dec. 14. Maximum daytime temperatures 3-11 C (37-52 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures 0-9 C (32-48 F).

• Belgorod, Russia: Snow forecast Dec. 8 and mixed wintry precipitation Dec. 9. Light rainfall expected Dec. 10-11. Largely dry and partly cloudy Dec. 12-13 and mixed wintry precipitation Dec. 14. Maximum daytime temperatures -2-5 C (28-41 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -4-3 C (25-37 F).

• Valuyki, Russia: Snowfall is forecast Dec. 8 and largely dry and cloudy Dec. 9. Light rainfall is expected Dec. 10-11. Largely dry and partly cloudy Dec. 12-13 and mixed wintry precipitation Dec. 14. Maximum daytime temperatures -2-5 C (28-41 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -3-2 C (27-36 F).

• Rostov, Russia: Largely dry and partly cloudy Dec. 8-13. Moderate rainfall forecast Dec. 14. Maximum daytime temperatures 1-9C (34-48 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -3-3 C (27-37 F).

Most rivers in Ukraine drain in a southerly direction into the Black and Azov seas. Heavy rainfall in the north is likely to result in water level rises in the rivers in the southern part of the country, even if no significant rain falls in the area.

As of Dec. 8, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring has issued an orange warning (the middle level on a three-tier scale) for abnormally cold weather in Voronezh Oblast. Yellow snow and ice, freezing rain, sleet, and strong wind warnings have been issued in Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, Rostov, and Voronezh oblasts and yellow fog and strong wind warnings have been issued in parts of Crimea. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Transport
The winter weather will likely cause ground and air transport disruptions across parts of Ukraine over the coming weeks. Traffic and commercial trucking delays are possible along regional highways. Difficult and potentially dangerous driving conditions are also likely on secondary and rural roadways in the affected states as maintenance crews prioritize clearing major routes. Authorities could close stretches of highway if driving conditions become too hazardous. Gusty winds may threaten to topple high-profile vehicles. Flight delays and cancellations are likely due to ground stops and deicing operations at airports.

Context

The arrival of winter is likely to have an increasing impact on military operations in the region. Temperatures are likely to drop well below freezing in most areas over the coming months, which could temporarily facilitate ground movement as rivers freeze over and muddy conditions created by fall rains begin to abate. However, it is likely that the severe winter typically experienced in the region will prompt severe logistical impediments, and wear and tear on vehicles and military equipment, which is likely to lead to a significant drop in the tempo of military operations.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where severe weather is forecast. Charge battery-powered devices in case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center
Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring