India: Increased security likely across Jammu and Kashmir Union Territory through at least early March amid heightened tensions

Event

A heightened security posture is likely across Jammu and Kashmir Union Territory through at least early March amid reports of rising killings and associated protests to denounce criminal violence since December 2022. Recently, activists have held demonstrations and shutdown strikes in parts of Jammu, including the Poonch and Rajouri districts. As of Jan. 4, localized transport disruptions were reported in Kathua District, and retail spaces and business establishments were closed in Rajouri District.

Effective Jan. 4, officials have imposed a 21:00-06:00 nightly curfew in Samba District along the international border for two months as a precaution; authorities indicate the measure may be rescinded earlier. Persons with proper documentation may only travel to the affected area for emergencies.

Additional civil unrest incidents of varying types, including sit-ins, marches, road blockades, and shutdown strikes, are possible over the coming weeks, especially in Jammu. Typical gathering sites include government buildings, religious sites, military installations, prominent squares in city centers, and main thoroughfares. Well-attended rallies are likely to attract hundreds of participants.

Authorities will deploy more security personnel across the territory. Officials may impose enhanced measures in other parts of the region if tensions persist. Clashes between activists and police are possible. Isolated security incidents cannot be ruled out. Significant violence could prompt authorities to restrict public movement and telecommunication services. Localized business disruptions and ground shipping delays are possible until security measures, and shutdown strikes end.

Context

There has been an uptick in killings targeting minority groups, including Hindus, in the union territory since 2022. The most recent incident occurred on Jan. 1 when two unidentified armed assailants killed four civilians in Rajouri District. The assault led to widespread protests and shutdown strikes by several organizations. Additional attacks are possible over the coming weeks. Violence will likely prompt activists to hold further demonstrations denouncing any incidents, and demanding authorities take action to prevent such attacks.

Advice

Exercise increased caution if operating in Jammu and Kashmir Union Territory. Confirm road status, transport reservations, and deliveries. Remain courteous and cooperative if approached and questioned by law enforcement personnel. If any violence erupts nearby, leave the area immediately. Heed all security and transport advisories.