Israel, PT: Tensions to remain elevated in East Jerusalem and West Bank through at least late February /update 8

Event

Tensions will almost certainly remain heightened in East Jerusalem and the West Bank through at least late February amid a series of deadly attacks, clashes, and Israeli security operations in Israel and the Palestinian Territories. Israeli security forces continue to launch frequent raids in the West Bank and impose movement restrictions on some Palestinian communities in the territory, often in response to Palestinian attacks on Israeli settlers and security forces. On Jan. 26, nine Palestinians, including seven militants, were killed in an Israeli security operation in Jenin. The operation had the highest death toll of any incident in the West Bank since 2005. The incident has escalated tensions between Gaza-based militants and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). The IDF conducted airstrikes on locations in Gaza following two rocket fires from the enclave on Jan. 27.

Palestinian demonstrations and strikes are also almost certain over the coming weeks, particularly in the West Bank, to denounce Israeli security operations, associated clashes, and the arrests and killings of Palestinians. Further clashes between Palestinians and Israeli security forces are likely in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, some of which will probably result in the injury of dozens of Palestinians. An uptick in armed Palestinian attacks against Israeli individuals and interests is likely in the West Bank as Palestinian militant groups continue to advocate violence; attacks are also possible in East Jerusalem and across Israel. Israeli settlers may stage further demonstrations and clash with Palestinian communities in the West Bank, prompting retaliatory Palestinian attacks near Israeli settlements.

Additionally, further cross-border exchanges of fire between the IDF and Gaza-based militants are possible, particularly if there is a further increase in violence between Palestinian protesters and Israeli authorities in East Jerusalem and the West Bank over the coming weeks. Flashpoint areas for the violence have included parts of Jerusalem's Old City (including the Temple Mount/Al-Haram ash-Sharif compound, Damascus Gate, Lion's Gate, Herod's Gate, and Chain Gate), as well as Jenin, Nablus, Hebron, Palestinian refugee camps, and Israeli checkpoints and settlements in the West Bank.

Context

Authorities in Israel have bolstered security nationwide in the aftermath of several terror attacks since March 2022. The series of attacks across the country, including in Be'er Sheva, Hadera, Bnei Brak, Jerusalem, and Tel Aviv, prompted authorities to launch Operation Break the Wave in late March. The operation aims to stem the wave of terror attacks that have killed at least 30 people and wounded dozens of others.

The IDF launched Operation Breakwater earlier this year to degrade Palestinian military groups' capability to launch attacks. As part of the operation, the IDF has conducted regular raids against suspected Palestinian militant cells in Jenin and Nablus in recent weeks. To date, Israeli authorities have arrested more than 2000 Palestinians, and the nightly raids have resulted in 130 deaths.

Advice

Exercise caution while operating in East Jerusalem and the West Bank. Avoid all demonstrations. Seek updated information on security conditions and possible movement restrictions in East Jerusalem and the West Bank before traveling. Heed the advice of local authorities. Avoid loitering near security checkpoints and main entrances to hotels, restaurants, or government buildings. Do not attempt to bypass security checkpoints without authorities' permission.