Ukraine: More stable weather conditions forecast across the country through at least Jan. 19 /update 17

Event

Ukraine General Weather Forecast
Following days of unseasonably mild weather followed by severe cold, slightly above seasonal average temperatures are forecast to prevail across Ukraine through at least Jan. 19. Temperatures have begun to rise as of Jan. 12 and are expected to remain around 0 C (32 F) in central, eastern, and northern areas and a few degrees higher in southern and western regions over the coming days. Temperatures could even reach 11 C (52 F) in southern regions Jan. 17. Light precipitation is forecast to persist over parts of the country, with rain and sleet possible in western and southwestern regions Jan. 12, far western regions Jan. 13, and much of the west Jan. 14. Light snowfall is expected over northern and eastern regions Jan. 15 and northern and western regions Jan. 16-17.

Precipitation and thawing snow in recent weeks has led to river levels rising in parts of Ukraine, particularly in far northern and northwestern river basins. Orange hydrological warnings (level 3 on a five-tier scale) have been issued for the Upper Dnieper and Desna river basins in Chernihiv Oblast, as well as yellow warnings for the Pripyat River in Volyn Oblast. Yellow avalanche warnings have been issued for parts of the Carpathian mountains in Ivano-Frankivsk and Zakarpattia oblasts. Fog and mist are also possible across much of the country, especially during early mornings and at night. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days. Hazardous travel conditions are possible in some areas over the coming days due to icy roads and reduced visibility caused by fog and blowing snow.

Conflict Area Forecast
Seven-day forecast for major cities and logistical hubs in the conflict zone and bordering areas of Russia:

• Kharkiv: Cloudy with little precipitation Jan. 12-14 and Jan. 16-18. Light snow forecast Jan. 15. Maximum daytime temperatures -8-4 C (18-39 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -10-1 C (14-34 F).

• Luhansk: Cloudy with little precipitation Jan. 12-14 and Jan. 16-18. Light snow forecast Jan. 15. Maximum daytime temperatures -11-7 C (12-45 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -9-1 C (16-34 F).

• Donetsk: Cloudy with little precipitation Jan. 12-14 and Jan. 16-18. Light snow forecast Jan. 15. Maximum daytime temperatures -7-5 C (19-41 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -8-1 C (18-34 F).

• Mariupol: Cloudy with little precipitation Jan. 12-14 and Jan. 16-18. Light snow forecast Jan. 15. Maximum daytime temperatures -2-2 C (28-36 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -5-1 C (23-34 F).

• Kherson: Cloudy with little precipitation Jan. 12-18. Maximum daytime temperatures 2-11 C (36-52 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -4-4 C (25-39 F).

• Zaporizhzhia: Cloudy with little precipitation Jan. 12-18. Maximum daytime temperatures 0-8 C (32-46 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -5-1 C (23-34 F).

• Belgorod, Russia: Light snow forecast Jan. 12, largely dry and cloudy Jan. 13, and mixed wintry precipitation Jan. 14-15. Cloudy with little precipitation Jan. 16-18. Maximum daytime temperatures -5-2 C (23-36 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -7-0 C (19-32 F).

• Valuyki, Russia: Light snow forecast Jan. 12-13 and mixed wintry precipitation Jan 14-15 and Jan. 18. Cloudy with little precipitation Jan. 16-17. Maximum daytime temperatures -5-2 C (23-36 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -7--1 C (19-30 F).

• Rostov, Russia: Light snow forecast Jan. 12, largely dry and cloudy Jan. 13, and mixed wintry precipitation Jan. 14-15. Cloudy with little precipitation Jan. 16-18. Maximum daytime temperatures -2-4 C (28-39 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -5--1 C (23-30 F).

Most rivers in Ukraine drain in a southerly direction into the Black and Azov seas. Heavy rainfall in the north is likely to result in water level rises in the rivers in the southern part of the country, even if no significant rain falls in the area.

As of Jan. 12, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring has issued orange low temperature and low water level warnings (the middle level on a three-tier scale) for Rostov Oblast. Yellow strong wind warnings have been issued for Bryansk and Rostov oblasts, as well as Krasnodar Kray and parts of Crimea. Yellow freezing rain warnings have been issued for Krasnodar Kray and Rostov Oblast and yellow fog warnings for Krasnodar Kray. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Transport
The winter weather will likely cause ground and air transport disruptions across parts of Ukraine over the coming weeks. Traffic and commercial trucking delays are possible along regional highways. Difficult and potentially dangerous driving conditions are also likely on secondary and rural roadways in the affected states as maintenance crews prioritize clearing major routes. Authorities could close stretches of highway if driving conditions become too hazardous. Gusty winds may threaten to topple high-profile vehicles. Flight delays and cancellations are likely due to ground stops and deicing operations at airports.

Context

The arrival of winter is likely to have an increasing impact on military operations in the region. Temperatures are likely to drop well below freezing in most areas over the coming months, which could temporarily facilitate ground movement as rivers freeze over and muddy conditions created by fall rains begin to abate. However, it is likely that the severe winter typically experienced in the region will prompt severe logistical impediments, and wear and tear on vehicles and military equipment, which is likely to lead to a significant drop in the tempo of military operations.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where severe weather is forecast. Charge battery-powered devices in case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center
Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring