Ukraine: Wintry precipitation forecast across much of the country through at least Feb. 2 /update 19

Event

Ukraine General Weather Forecast
Conditions are expected to stay largely stable with some isolated precipitation across much of Ukraine Jan. 26-29. Some light snow is possible in western regions Jan. 27 and mixed wintry precipitation in southern regions Jan. 28-29 and eastern regions Jan. 29. Heavier wintry precipitation is then expected to spread across much of the country as successive weather systems move in from the northwest Jan. 30-Feb. 1. Light snow is expected across western and northern regions Jan. 30 before the precipitation spreads southeastward across the country Jan. 31. Another system is expected to approach the northwest from Feb. 1. Temperatures are expected to hover around freezing during the day and a few degrees below at night across most of Ukraine over the coming week. Fog is possible in places, especially at night and early morning. Hazardous travel conditions due to slippery roads and reduced visibility across parts of the country over the coming days.

Flooding remains a concern for some northern and northwestern regions due to fluctuating river levels. As of Jan. 26, red hydrological warnings (level 4 on a five-tier scale) have been issued for the Upper Dnieper River basin and orange warnings for the Desna River basin, both in Chernihiv Oblast. Yellow warnings are also in place for the Pirpyat River basin in Volyn Oblast and the Western Bug River basin in Lviv and Volyn oblasts. Yellow avalanche warnings have been issued for parts of the Carpathian mountains in western Ivano-Frankivsk and eastern Zakarpattia oblasts. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Conflict Area Forecast
Seven-day forecast for major cities and logistical hubs in the conflict zone and bordering areas of Russia:

• Kharkiv: Largely dry and partly cloudy Jan. 26-28 and Jan. 31. Mixed wintry precipitation forecast Jan. 29-30 and Feb. 1. Maximum daytime temperatures -1 to 2 C (30-36 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -11 to -4 C (12 to 25 F).

• Luhansk: Largely dry and partly cloudy Jan. 26-28 and Jan. 31. Mixed wintry precipitation forecast Jan. 29-30 and Feb. 1. Maximum daytime temperatures 0 to -3 C (32-37 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -8 to -1 C (18-34 F).

• Donetsk: Largely dry and partly cloudy Jan. 26-28 and Jan. 31. Mixed wintry precipitation forecast Jan. 29-30 and Feb. 1. Maximum daytime temperatures -1 to 3 C (30 to 37 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -6 to -1 C (21 to 30 F).

• Mariupol: Largely dry and partly cloudy Jan. 26-28 and Jan. 30-Feb. 1. Mixed wintry precipitation forecast Jan. 29-30. Maximum daytime temperatures -4 to 2 C (25 to 36 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -4 to 1 C (25 to 34 F).

• Kherson: Largely dry and partly cloudy Jan. 26-27, Jan. 30, and Feb. 1. Mixed wintry precipitation forecast Jan. 28-29 and Jan. 31. Maximum daytime temperatures 1 to 4 C (34 to 39 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -5 to -2 C (23 to 28 F).

• Zaporizhzhia: Largely dry and partly cloudy Jan. 26-27, Jan. 30, and Feb. 1. Mixed wintry precipitation forecast Jan. 28-29 and Jan. 31. Maximum daytime temperatures 0 to 4 C (32 to 39 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -8 to -2 C (28 to 28 F).

• Belgorod, Russia: Largely dry and partly cloudy Jan. 26-28 and Jan. 30. Light snow forecast Jan. 29 and Jan. 31 and mixed wintry precipitation Feb. 1. Maximum daytime temperatures -2 to -1 C (28 to 30 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -9 to -4 C (16 to 25 F).

• Valuyki, Russia: Largely dry and partly cloudy Jan. 26-28 and Jan. 30-31. Light snowfall forecast Jan. 29 and mixed wintry precipitation Feb. 1. Maximum daytime temperatures -2 to 0 C (28 to 32 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -10 to -3 C (14 to 27 F).

• Rostov, Russia: Largely dry and partly cloudy Jan. 26-28 and Jan. 30. Mixed wintry precipitation forecast Jan. 29 and Jan. 31 and light rainfall Feb. 1. Maximum daytime temperatures 1 to 3 C (34 t0 37 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -7 to -1 C (19 to 30 F).

Most rivers in Ukraine drain in a southerly direction into the Black and Azov seas. Heavy rainfall in the north is likely to result in water level rises in the rivers in the southern part of the country, even if no significant rain falls in the area.

As of Jan. 26, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring has issued yellow fog warnings (the lowest level on a three-tier scale) across Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, and Voronezh oblasts, as well as Krasnodar Kray and parts of Crimea. Yellow ice warnings have been issued for Rostov Oblast. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Transport
The winter weather will likely cause ground and air transport disruptions across parts of Ukraine over the coming weeks. Traffic and commercial trucking delays are possible along regional highways. Difficult and potentially dangerous driving conditions are also likely on secondary and rural roadways in the affected states as maintenance crews prioritize clearing major routes. Authorities could close stretches of highway if driving conditions become too hazardous. Gusty winds may threaten to topple high-profile vehicles. Flight delays and cancellations are likely due to ground stops and airport deicing operations.

Context

Winter is likely to have an impact on military operations in the region. Temperatures are likely to drop well below freezing at times, which could temporarily facilitate ground movement as rivers freeze over and muddy conditions created by fall rains begin to abate. However, it is likely that the severe winter typically experienced in the region will prompt severe logistical impediments, and wear and tear on vehicles and military equipment, which is likely to lead to a significant drop in the tempo of military operations.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where severe weather is forecast. Charge battery-powered devices in case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center
Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring