Ukraine: Wintry precipitation forecast in western regions and largely dry across much of the rest of the country through at least Jan. 26 /update 18

Event

Ukraine General Weather Forecast
Conditions are expected to stay largely dry across much of Ukraine through at least Jan. 26, with the exception of western regions where wintry precipitation is forecast. Temperatures are expected to remain above the seasonal average through Jan. 21 before dropping across much of the country from Jan. 22. Colder temperatures are likely in western regions from Jan. 20, where a mix of rain, sleet, and snow is expected Jan. 19-22. Strong winds are expected in central, northeastern, and southern regions Jan. 19, and fog and frost could lead to hazardous travel conditions due to slippery roads and reduced visibility across parts of the country over the coming days.

As of Jan. 19, the Ukraine Hydrometeorological Center has issued yellow strong winds warnings across central, northeastern, and southern regions Jan. 19, with winds gusting up to 72 kph (45 mph) possible. Yellow rain and snow warnings have been issued across Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, and Zakarpattia oblasts in western Ukraine Jan. 20. Orange hydrological warnings (level 3 on a five-tier scale) have been issued for the Upper Dnieper and Desna river basins in Chernihiv Oblast and the Tysa River basin in Zakarpattia Oblast. Orange avalanche warnings have been issued for parts of the Carpathian mountains in western Ivano-Frankivsk and eastern Zakarpattia oblasts. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Conflict Area Forecast
Seven-day forecast for major cities and logistical hubs in the conflict zone and bordering areas of Russia:

• Kharkiv: Some rain and sleet possible Jan. 19, largely dry and partly cloudy Jan. 20-25. Maximum daytime temperatures -1-9 C (30-48 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -4-4 C (25-39 F).

• Luhansk: Some rain and sleet possible Jan. 19, largely dry and partly cloudy Jan. 20-25. Maximum daytime temperatures -1-7 C (30-45 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -3-3 C (27-37 F).

• Donetsk: Some rain and sleet possible Jan. 19, largely dry and partly cloudy Jan. 20-25. Maximum daytime temperatures -3-9 C (27-48 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -3-5 C (27-41 F).

• Mariupol: Some rain and sleet possible Jan. 19, largely dry and partly cloudy Jan. 20-25. Maximum daytime temperatures -3-5 C (27-41 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -2-3 C (28-37 F).

• Kherson: Partly cloudy with little precipitation Jan. 19-25. Maximum daytime temperatures 2-17 C (36-63 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -1-7 C (30-45 F).

• Zaporizhzhia: Partly cloudy with little precipitation Jan. 19-25. Maximum daytime temperatures -1-14 C (30-57 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -3-4 C (27-39 F).

• Belgorod, Russia: Largely dry and cloudy Jan. 19-25. Maximum daytime temperatures -2-5 C (28-41 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -8-0 C (18-32 F).

• Valuyki, Russia: Largely dry and cloudy Jan. 19-25. Maximum daytime temperatures -2-4 C (28-39 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -8--1 C (18-30 F).

• Rostov, Russia: Largely dry and partly cloudy Jan. 19-25. Maximum daytime temperatures 1-5 C (34-41 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -6--3 C (21-27 F).

Most rivers in Ukraine drain in a southerly direction into the Black and Azov seas. Heavy rainfall in the north is likely to result in water level rises in the rivers in the southern part of the country, even if no significant rain falls in the area.

As of Jan. 19, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring has issued yellow ice, strong wind, and fog warnings (the lowest level on a three-tier scale) across Belgorod, Bryansk, and Voronezh oblasts, as well as yellow fog warnings for Kursk Oblast and Krasnodar Kray and yellow strong wind warnings for parts of Crimea. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Transport
The winter weather will likely cause ground and air transport disruptions across parts of Ukraine over the coming weeks. Traffic and commercial trucking delays are possible along regional highways. Difficult and potentially dangerous driving conditions are also likely on secondary and rural roadways in the affected states as maintenance crews prioritize clearing major routes. Authorities could close stretches of highway if driving conditions become too hazardous. Gusty winds may threaten to topple high-profile vehicles. Flight delays and cancellations are likely due to ground stops and airport deicing operations.

Context

Winter is likely to have an impact on military operations in the region. Temperatures are likely to drop well below freezing at times, which could temporarily facilitate ground movement as rivers freeze over and muddy conditions created by fall rains begin to abate. However, it is likely that the severe winter typically experienced in the region will prompt severe logistical impediments, and wear and tear on vehicles and military equipment, which is likely to lead to a significant drop in the tempo of military operations.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where severe weather is forecast. Charge battery-powered devices in case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center
Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring