Afghanistan: Adverse weather forecast across central and northern regions through at least Feb. 15

Event

Severe weather is forecast across central and northern Afghanistan through at least Feb. 15. As of early Feb. 14, the Afghanistan Meteorological Department has issued a weather warning for heavy rainfall and snowfall across parts of Badakhshan, Badghis, Baghlan, Balkh, Bamyan, Faryab, Ghor, northern Herat, Jowzjan, Kunduz, Nuristan, Panjshir, Samangan, Sar-e-Pol, and Takhar provinces Feb. 14-15. Rainfall totals of 1.5-2.5 cm (0.6-1 inches) are forecast across parts of the affected area, and snowfall accumulations of 20-50 cm (8-20 inches) are possible predominantly over higher ground. The heaviest precipitation is forecast over northwestern Badakhshan, northwestern Bamyan, far northeastern Ghor, far southwestern Samangan, southeastern Sar-e-Pol, and far northeastern Takhar provinces. Red warnings have been issued in these areas, with orange and yellow warnings in place across the rest of the affected area. Officials could update and possibly extend the coverage of weather alerts over the coming days.

Hazardous Conditions
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.

Due to the arid nature of the region and poor stormwater management, even minor rainfall accumulations could quickly result in episodes of flash flooding. Flooding is possible in streams and dry riverbeds.

Precipitation could fall as snow in higher elevations over the coming days. Wind gusts could cause blowing and drifting snow; decreased visibility is likely in mountainous areas. Rain-induced landslides cannot be discounted in areas of elevated terrain; there is also the possibility of avalanches in mountainous areas where the snowpack has become unstable due to heavy snowfall. Power outages could occur throughout the affected area.

Transport
Floodwaters and related debris may render some bridges or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around the affected area. Flooding in urban areas could also result in significant traffic congestion. Heavy snow will likely make driving hazardous in some areas; authorities could implement temporary road closures or detours in such locations. Mountain passes and tunnels could be closed as a precautionary measure during periods of intense snowfall. The disruptive weather will likely cause some delays and cancellations at airports in the affected region.

Disruptions triggered by inclement weather and resultant hazards, such as flooding or avalanches, could persist well after conditions have improved - it could take days before any floodwaters recede and/or officials clear debris. If there is severe damage to infrastructure, repair or reconstruction efforts may result in residual disruptions.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather-related updates and advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business arrangements before traveling in the affected area. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where severe weather is forecast; plan for possible supply chain disruptions throughout the affected areas. Stay away from elevated streams, creeks, and other watercourses that are prone to flash flooding. Do not attempt to navigate flooded roadways. Exercise caution in elevated terrain due to the threat of landslides, as well as mountainous regions where avalanches pose a threat. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.