Australia: Adverse weather forecast across parts of far northeastern Northern Territory and far northern Queensland through at least Feb. 20 /update 1

Event

Heavy rainfall, strong winds, and possible flooding are forecast across parts of far northeastern Northern Territory and far northern Queensland through at least Feb. 20. As of Feb. 15, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has warned of a monsoon trough and an embedded low in the Gulf of Carpentaria, with the trough extending across Cape York Peninsula. The low is forecast to track slowly southwards over the coming days and make landfall over far northern Queensland late Feb. 16.

Severe weather warnings for heavy rainfall are in place for Peninsula, Gulf Country, North Tropical Coast and Tablelands, and Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders forecast districts in Queensland. Heavy rainfall is likely in the western parts of the warning area, affecting coastal communities and islands between Aurukun to Delta Downs before extending further south and east the evening of Feb. 15, affecting broader parts of the Peninsula, Gulf Country, and Northern Goldfields and Upper Flinders districts. Six-hourly rainfall totals of 10-15 cm (4-6 inches) are possible. Heavy rainfall is also forecast over the North Tropical Coast late Feb. 15-16. Six-hourly rainfall totals of 12-20 cm (5-8 inches) are likely. Locally intense rainfall with six-hourly rainfall totals of 20-30 cm (8-12 inches) is possible, which may lead to dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding.

A severe weather warning for damaging surf has been issued for parts of Arnhem and Carpentaria districts in Northern Territory; localized damage and coastal erosion are possible across the exposed Carpentaria and southern and eastern Groote Eylandt coasts. Significant wave heights of 2-3 meters (6.5-10 feet) are possible and are likely to ease from the evening of Feb. 15.

Flood watches have been issued for the Cape York Peninsula in Queensland; catchments are saturated due to thunderstorm activity over the recent days. A separate flood watch is in place for the North Tropical Coast from the Daintree to Townsville; heavy rainfall is forecast across the North Tropical Coast and Hinchinbrook area through Feb. 20. Locally intense rainfall is possible. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Hazardous Conditions
Further sustained heavy rainfall could trigger additional flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed or a lack of stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where the soil has become saturated by heavy rainfall.

Transport
Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters.

Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation. Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancellations at airports in the region. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations if strong winds and large waves trigger hazardous sea conditions.

Localized business disruptions may occur in low-lying areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of flood damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and employees' inability to reach work sites. Electricity and telecommunications service disruptions are possible where significant flooding, strong winds, or landslides impact utility networks.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where flooding has been forecast. Do not drive on flooded roads. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Australian Bureau of Meteorology