Ethiopia: Heightened security and protests likely through late February despite Ethiopian Orthodox Tewhado Church postponing nationwide protests /update 1

Event

Authorities in Ethiopia will likely maintain an elevated security posture through at least late February despite the Ethiopian Orthodox Tewhado Church (EOTC) postponement of nationwide demonstrations until further notice. The protest was originally slated for Feb. 12. The decision came after the talks between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and EOTC authorities Feb. 10 over the government's alleged interference in the church's affairs and tension over a split in the EOTC. Nevertheless, EOTC could organize a new protest campaign with little-to-no notice should authorities renege on their commitment.

Spontaneous gatherings cannot be ruled, notably in major cities, including Addis Ababa. Protesters may gather at religious sites, city centers, and public squares. Authorities will likely deploy to the site of any unrest. Clashes with security forces are likely should any protest materialize and if demonstrators ignore police orders to disperse. Localized transport and business disruptions are likely near demonstrations. Authorities may limit or block access to mobile and internet communications during periods of severe unrest. Clashes between members of the breakaway EOTC faction and mainstream EOTC could occur.

Context

Since late January, tensions between the EOTC and the government have remained high following disagreements over the breakaway of three archbishops and 25 episcopal appointees in the Oromia Region, whom the EOTC accused of being involved in "illegal anointing." The EOTC also accused the government of direct involvement in the crisis. The EOTC has filed a lawsuit against the government and the breakaway faction at the Ethiopian Supreme Court. The new Holy Synod decided to break away from the EOTC due to its perceived failure to serve followers in their native languages, resulting in the loss of millions of believers over the past years, especially in the Oromia and SNNP regions. Tensions recently came to a head on Feb. 4 when clashes between followers of EOTC and security forces near Shashamene's St. Michael Church left at least three people dead and several others injured.

Advice

Avoid all protests. Exercise caution in recent unrest-affected locations and near religious sites. Reconfirm the status of road routes before departure. Leave the area immediately at the first sign of violence. If violence occurs, seek shelter in a safe nongovernmental building. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation.