Israel, PT: Heightened security, further violence likely after raid in Nablus leaves 10 Palestinians dead, over 100 others wounded Feb. 22

Event

Heightened security is likely in Israel and parts of the Palestinian Territories through at least late February after an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) raid and associated fighting in Nablus left at least 10 Palestinians dead and over 100 others wounded Feb. 22. No Israeli casualties were reported in connection with the security operation and ensuing clashes. The IDF reportedly launched the West Bank raid to arrest three militants who were suspected of having previously carried out shooting attacks in the territory and were allegedly plotting additional assaults; the Lion's Den militant group confirmed that the suspects were affiliated with its organization.

In response to the incident in Nablus, a Hamas spokesman notably asserted that the group's "patience is running out." The Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) militant group also issued a statement alluding to possible retaliatory attacks, while Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas denounced the raid as a "dangerous escalation." For their part, Israeli security forces are reportedly preparing for retaliatory attacks on Israeli interests in the West Bank, Jerusalem, and in the interior of Israel, as well as rocket fire from Gaza-based militants. Additionally, the Israel Police have confirmed that authorities have decided to increase the alert level and security posture in communities within the Seam Zone (i.e., between the Green Line and Israel's West Bank barrier), Jerusalem, and other central cities due to the threat of retaliatory attacks.

Armed Palestinian attacks and further clashes between Israeli security forces and Palestinians are likely in the West Bank and Israel over the coming days, as are protests by Palestinian activist groups. Israeli forces will probably carry out further raids to arrest or otherwise neutralize suspected militants and will likely impose localized movement restrictions. Exchanges of fire across the Israel-Gaza border cannot be ruled out. Iron Dome missile defense activation, rocket sirens, and brief take-shelter orders are likely in areas of Israel that are subject to rocket fire; areas within 40 km (25 miles) of the Gazan border are most likely to experience rocket fire and consequent disruptions.

Context

The IDF's raid in Nablus comes amid Operation Break the Wave, which Israel launched in late March 2022 to stem Palestinian militant activity, primarily in the West Bank. As part of the operation, Israeli forces have conducted near-nightly raids against suspected Palestinian militant cells in Jenin and Nablus in recent weeks. Israeli forces have reportedly arrested more than 2,500 Palestinians and killed more than 200 others since the operation began; Israel asserts that most of those killed either clashed with the IDF or attacked Israeli forces or civilians. Meanwhile, with Israeli-Palestinian tensions escalating to their highest levels since the 2021 Sheikh Jarrah crisis, the recent violence has raised the likelihood that a third Intifada, or Palestinian uprising, may break out in the event of further significant clashes between the sides.

Advice

Exercise caution when operating in areas where Israeli and Palestinian communities exist in close proximity to one another, including East Jerusalem and parts of the West Bank. Consider deferring nonessential travel to areas of Israel near the Gazan border until prevailing tensions subside. Avoid all demonstrations. Seek updated information on security conditions and possible movement restrictions in East Jerusalem and the West Bank before traveling. Heed the advice of local authorities. Avoid loitering near security checkpoints and main entrances to hotels, restaurants, or government buildings. Do not attempt to bypass security checkpoints without authorities' permission.

If incoming mortar rounds or rockets are reported or warning sirens sound in the general vicinity, report to the nearest bomb shelter and await further instructions from authorities. If there is no shelter nearby, stay indoors and away from windows and exterior walls. If possible, move to a ground floor or basement.