Madagascar: Intense Tropical Cyclone Freddy approaching the coast of Vatovavy Region Feb. 21; landfall imminent /update 6

Event

Intense Tropical Cyclone Freddy is tracking west-southwestward in the Indian Ocean and is approaching the coast of Madagascar's Vatovavy Region Feb. 21. As of 15:00 EAT, the storm's center of circulation was approximately 296 km (184 miles) southeast of Antananarivo.

Forecast models indicate that the system will make landfall in Mananjary District in Vatovavy Region later Feb. 21 and then weaken into a severe and then moderate tropical storm as it tracks west-southwestward across south-central Madagascar before exiting into the Mozambique Channel late Feb. 22. The system will then briefly strengthen into a severe tropical storm as it tracks generally westward over water Feb. 23 before making landfall on the eastern coast of Mozambique in Inhambane Province early Feb. 24. After landfall, the storm is forecast to track southwestward over Inhambane and Gaza provinces Feb. 24-25 before dissipating close to the border with northeastern South Africa late Feb. 25. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and changes could occur in the coming days.

As of Feb. 21, Madagascar's General Directorate of Meteorology has issued red cyclone warnings (the highest level on a three-tier scale) for Amoron'i Mania, Fitovinany, Ihorombe, Matsiatra Ambony, Vakinankaratra, and Vatovavy regions, as well as Antanambao-Manampotsy, Mahanoro, Marolambo, and Vatomnadry districts in Atsinanana Region. Yellow cyclone warnings are in place for Atsimo Atsinanana and Vakinankaratra regions, as well as Anosibe-An'ala District in Alaotra-Mangoro Region, Toamasina I-II and Vohibinany districts in Atsinanana Region, Mahabo, Manja, and Morondava districts in Menabe Region, and Ankazoabo-Atsimo, Beroroha, Morombe, Sakaraha, and Toliara I-II districts in Atsimo-Andrefana Region. Green cyclone alerts have been issued for Analamanga and Itsay regions, as well as Belon'i Tsiribihina and Miandrivazo districts in Menabe Region and Moramanga district in Alaotra-Mangoro Region. Rainfall accumulations of more than 20 cm (8 inches), waves greater than 10 meters (33 feet) in height, and storm surge are possible near where the storm makes landfall. Restrictions on vehicular movement have been implemented in areas under cyclone warnings Feb. 21-22, as well as along sections of the RN2 and RN7 highways. Schools have also been closed across parts of the affected areas.

Mozambique's National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) has not issued any warnings regarding Freddy as of Feb. 21; however, the institute has warned that rough seas are expected in the Mozambique Channel from Feb. 22 and heavy rainfall, strong winds, and thunderstorms are likely in Ihambane, Sofala, and Zambezia provinces from Feb. 23.

Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and locations with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous. The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions; it could also render some bridges and roadways impassable. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding may increase the incidence of insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

Joint Typhoon Warning Center
Madagascar National Office for Risk and Disaster Management (BNGRC)
Mozambique National Institute of Meteorology (INAM)