Ukraine: Periods of precipitation and rising temperatures forecast across much of the country through at least March 2 /update 23

Event

Ukraine General Weather Forecast
Spells of precipitation and rising temperatures are forecast across much of Ukraine through at least March 2. Largely dry conditions are forecast across the country Feb. 23 and only the odd light shower is expected Feb. 24. Moderate-to-heavy rainfall is expected in western regions Feb. 25, as well as a mixture of lighter rainfall and sleet across much of the rest of Ukraine. Moderate rainfall accompanied by sleet in places is expected in western. southern, and eastern regions Feb. 26 and light rainfall is likely in northern and central regions. A mixture of rainfall, sleet, and wet snow is forecast across the country Feb. 27 before generally drier conditions prevail from Feb. 28. Temperatures are generally expected to rise over the coming days but will vary in different regions. In the west, temperatures will remain well above the seasonal average Feb. 23-26 and could reach as high as 12 C (54 F), before moderating somewhat from Feb. 27. In central and northern regions, temperatures are expected to rise from around freezing during the day Feb. 23 to up to 14 C (57 F) Feb. 25, before a slight cooling from Feb. 26. Southern regions will see temperatures rise to at around 15 C (59 F) by Feb. 25, and these milder temperatures will prevail through at least Feb. 27. Eastern regions will see the most significant temperature change. Daytime temperatures are forecast to be below freezing Feb. 23 and even colder at night, but will rise to up to 11 C (52 C) Feb. 26 before dropping again from Feb. 28. Hazardous travel conditions due to slippery roads and reduced visibility caused by blowing sleet and snow are likely.

Flooding remains a concern for some northern and northwestern regions due to precipitation and fluctuating river levels caused by ice formation. As of Feb. 23, orange hydrological warnings (level 3 on a five-tier scale) have been issued for the Upper Dnieper River and Desna River basins in Chernihiv Oblast. Yellow hydrological warnings have been issued for the Pripyat River basin in Volyn Oblast and green warnings for the Desna River basin in Kyiv Oblast. Yellow avalanche warnings have been issued for parts of the Carpathian mountains in western Ivano-Frankivsk and eastern and northern Zakarpattia oblasts, as well as green warnings in parts of southern Lviv and far western Chernivtsi oblasts. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Conflict Area Forecast
Seven-day forecast for major cities and logistical hubs in the conflict zone and bordering areas of Russia:

• Kharkiv: Partly cloudy without significant precipitation Feb. 23-25 and March 1. Sleet and rain forecast Feb. 26-28. Maximum daytime temperatures -6 to 10 C (21 to 50 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -14 to 5 C (7 to 41 F).

• Luhansk: Partly cloudy without significant precipitation Feb. 23-25 and March 1. Sleet and rain forecast Feb. 26-27 and rain turning to snow Feb. 28. Maximum daytime temperatures -8 to 9 C (18-48 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -14 to 5 C (7 to 41 F).

• Donetsk: Partly cloudy without significant precipitation Feb. 23-25 and March 1. Sleet and rain forecast Feb. 26-27 and rain turning to snow Feb. 28. Maximum daytime temperatures -4 to 11 C (25 to 52 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -9 to 7 C (16 to 45 F).

• Mariupol: Partly cloudy without significant precipitation Feb. 23-25 and March 1. Sleet and rain forecast Feb. 26-27 and rain turning to snow Feb. 28. Maximum daytime temperatures -2 to 8 C (28 to 46 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -5 to 6 C (23 to 43 F).

• Kherson: Partly cloudy without significant precipitation Feb. 23-24 and March 1. Wet snow forecast Feb. 25 and rainfall and sleet Feb. 26-28. Maximum daytime temperatures 3 to 14 C (37 to 57 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -4 to 8 C (25 to 46 F).

• Zaporizhzhia: Partly cloudy without significant precipitation Feb. 23-24 and March 1. Wet snow forecast Feb. 25 and rainfall and sleet Feb. 26-28. Maximum daytime temperatures 0 to 15 C (32 to 59 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -7 to 7 C (19 to 45 F).

• Belgorod, Russia: Partly cloudy without significant precipitation Feb. 23-24 and Feb. 28. Light wintry precipitation forecast Feb. 25-27 and March. 1. Maximum daytime temperatures -8 to 4 C (18 to 39 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -15 to 2 C (5 to 36 F).

• Valuyki, Russia: Partly cloudy without significant precipitation Feb. 23-24 and Feb. 28. Light wintry precipitation forecast Feb. 25-March 1. Maximum daytime temperatures -7 to 6 C (19 to 43 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -14 to 1 C (7 to 34 F).

• Rostov, Russia: Partly cloudy without significant precipitation Feb. 23-March 1. Maximum daytime temperatures -3 to 15 C (27 to 59 F). Minimum nighttime temperatures -9 to 5 C (16 to 41 F).

Most rivers in Ukraine drain in a southerly direction into the Black and Azov seas. Heavy rainfall in the north is likely to result in water level rises in the rivers in the southern part of the country, even if no significant rain falls in the area.

As of Feb. 23, the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring has issued freezing rain warnings (the lowest level on a three-tier scale) for Belgorod, Bryansk, and Kursk oblasts, as well as Krasnodar Kray and mountainous parts of Crimea. Yellow icy road warnings have been issued for Rostov Oblast. Authorities will likely issue new alerts or update/rescind existing advisories as weather conditions change over the coming days.

Transport
The winter weather will likely cause ground and air transport disruptions across parts of Ukraine over the coming weeks. Traffic and commercial trucking delays are possible along regional highways. Difficult and potentially dangerous driving conditions are also likely on secondary and rural roadways in the affected states as maintenance crews prioritize clearing major routes. Authorities could close stretches of highway if driving conditions become too hazardous. Gusty winds may threaten to topple high-profile vehicles. Flight delays and cancellations are likely due to ground stops and airport deicing operations.

Context

Winter is likely to have an impact on military operations in the region. Temperatures are likely to drop well below freezing at times, which could temporarily facilitate ground movement as rivers freeze over and muddy conditions created by fall rains abate. However, the severe winter typically experienced in the region will likely prompt severe logistical impediments and wear and tear on vehicles and military equipment, which will likely lead to a significant drop in the tempo of military operations. As spring begins to approach and temperatures ease, both sides may look to adjust their positions ahead of a possible increase in offensive maneuvers. Offensives in early spring could be hampered by flooding and boggy ground caused by precipitation and thawing snow and ice.

Advice

Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where severe weather is forecast. Charge battery-powered devices in case of prolonged electricity outages.

Resources

Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center
Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring